KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 9, 2018
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +205K; previous +200K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 4.0%; previous 4.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.74)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.34%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.2)
Government Payrolls (previous +4K)
Private Payroll (previous +196K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg (previous +146K)
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.4%)
Monday, March 12, 2018
10:00 AM ET. January Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 106.93)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 7047.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6756.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 7009.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 6646.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 6504.28.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2739.44 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off the late-February high, the reaction low crossing at 2627.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 2789.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2627.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2530.47.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 143-22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 145-14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01. First support is February's low crossing at 142-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.249 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 120.145 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 121.095. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.249. First support is February's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at 57.90 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 59.95. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.
April heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 190.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 190.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.09. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 185.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 180.97.
April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's losses. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 165.19 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 194.86 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 194.86. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.47. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 185.66. Second support is February's low crossing at 165.19.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.679 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 2.833 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.983. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.679. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46. If March resumes this week's decline, February's low crossing at 88.15 is a potential downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.67. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 89.33. Second support is February's low crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off last Thursday's low, February's high crossing at 125.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 124.61. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 125.80. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 121.66. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.15.
The March British Pound was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 1.3568 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3912 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4160. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3719. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 1.3568.
The March Swiss Franc were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0486 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0676 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0676. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0908. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0486. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0386.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.04 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.62. First support is Monday's low crossing at 76.92. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.04.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9367 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9367. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9179.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 1342.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1342.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Third resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
May silver was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 333.35. First support is the overnight low crossing at 305.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's gains. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.93 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.85 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4.
May wheat was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.96 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 1-cents at 5.33 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.23 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57. First support is February's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.45 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.45 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.34.
May soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 414.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.24. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.96. First support is February's low crossing at 31.61. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.28 at $68.08.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday it rebounds off the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off January's high, last August's low crossing at 65.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.15. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 71.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.
April cattle closed down $1.20 at 121.78.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is today's low crossing at 120.90. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
April Feeder cattle closed down $2.38 at $143.00.
April Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 140.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.31. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 153.10. First support is January's low crossing at 140.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 139.27.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.49 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.82 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.