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INO Evening Markets
Ken Seehusen - Fri Jul 30 2010 at 4:22 PM
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, August 2, 2010
9:45 AM ET. July Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator
DJ Economic Sentiment Indicator (previous 40.3)
10:00 AM ET. July Online Help Wanted Index (previous 4154000)
10:00 AM ET. June Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous -0.2%)
Residential Construction (previous -0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 56.2)
Prices Index (previous 57)
Employment Index (previous 57.8)
Inventories (previous 45.8)
New Orders Index (previous 58.5)
Production Index (previous 61.4)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week?s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1828.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month?s rally, the reaction high crossing at 1902.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday?s high crossing at 1900.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1902.25. First support is today?s low crossing at 1831.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1828.37.
The September S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1077.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month?s rally, June?s high crossing at 1129.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday?s high crossing at 1118.00. Second resistance is June?s high crossing at 1129.20. First support is today?s low crossing at 1083.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1077.99.
The Dow closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week?s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,247 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews this month?s rally, June?s high crossing at 10,594 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday?s high crossing at 10,584. Second resistance is June?s high crossing at 10,594. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,371. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,247.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest " TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest
September T-bonds closed up 1-25/32?s at 128-21.
September T-bonds closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 127-18 tempering the near-term bearish outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this year?s rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130-10 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 125-07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday?s high crossing at 128-29. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130-10. First support is Wednesday?s low crossing at 126-01. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 125-07.
The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest " TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy
September crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends Thursday?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.81 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off this month?s low, June?s high crossing at 80.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday?s high crossing at 79.69. Second resistance is June?s high crossing at 80.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.81. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.40.
September heating oil closed higher on Friday while extending the trading range of the past three weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Friday?s high crossing at 210.18 would renew this month?s rally while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 216.11. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 200.10 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is last Friday?s high crossing at 210.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 216.11. First support is the reaction low crossing at 200.10. Second support is this month?s low crossing at 192.36.
September unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it extended Thursday?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this month?s rally, June?s high crossing at 217.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 201.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday?s high crossing at 215.19. Second resistance is June?s high crossing at 217.95. First support is Wednesday?s low crossing at 203.07. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 201.06.
September Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off this month?s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, June?s high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.575 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 4.937. Second resistance is June?s high crossing at 5.282. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.647. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.575.
CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies
The September Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends this week?s breakout below the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15 as it extends the decline off June?s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June?s high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.18. First support is today?s low crossing at 81.57. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47.
The September Euro closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 131.077. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If September extends the rally off June?s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 134.870 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.257 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday?s high crossing at 131.060. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 134.870. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.486. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.257.
The September British Pound closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May?s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 1.5938 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5308 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 1.5719. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 1.5938. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5427. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5308.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off June?s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June?s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at .9680 is the next downside target. Closes below Tuesday?s low crossing at .9402 is the next downside target. First resistance is today?s high crossing at .9655. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at .9680. First support is Tuesday?s low crossing at .9402. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at .9362.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month?s rally, June?s high crossing at 98.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing near 95.91 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday?s high crossing at 97.45. Second resistance is June?s high crossing at 98.57. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing near 95.91.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday renewing the rally off May?s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at .11790 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday?s low crossing at .11353 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at .11640. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at .11790. First support is Wednesday?s low crossing at .11353. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .11225.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals" TARGET="outsidelink"> http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals
August gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it rebounds off the 50% retracement level of this year?s rally crossing at 1158.30. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1191.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June?s high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 1183.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1191.20. First support is Wednesday?s low crossing at 1155.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70.
September silver closed higher due to short covering on Thursday while extending this month?s trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June?s high, June?s low crossing at 17.230 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 18.535 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.280. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.535. First support is Wednesday?s low crossing at 17.325. Second support is June?s low crossing at 17.230.
September copper closed higher on Friday and tested the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 331.30. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month?s rally, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 343.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 331.45. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 343.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 316.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.03.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
September Corn closed up 13 1/2-cents at 3.92 3/4.
September corn closed higher on Friday as it extended this week?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week?s rally, July?s high crossing at 3.97 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday?s low crossing at 3.61 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 3.93. Second resistance is July?s high crossing at 3.97 3/4. First support is Monday?s low crossing at 3.61 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 3.57 1/2.
September wheat closed up 34-cents at 6.61 1/2.
September wheat closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 6.40 1/2 as it extended the rally off June?s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June?s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 6.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing near 5.74 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 6.63. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 6.82 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.02 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 1/4.
September Kansas City Wheat closed up 28 1/4-cents at 6.74 1/2.
September Kansas City wheat gapped up and closed above the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 6.62 1/2 on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June?s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 7.04 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.89 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 6.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 7.04 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.89 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed up 29 1/2-cents at 6.87 3/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 6.58 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June?s low, the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 6.96 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.01 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 6.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at 6.96 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.30 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
September soybeans closed up 19 1/4-cents at 10.12.
September soybeans closed higher on Friday renewing the rally off June?s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June?s low, the 75% retracement level of this year?s decline crossing at 10.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.74 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 10.15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year?s decline crossing at 10.27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.88 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.74 1/4.
September soybean meal closed up $4.60 at $297 90.
September soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it extends this week?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week?s rally, this month?s high crossing at 300.30 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday?s low crossing at 282.50 would confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 299.50. Second resistance is this month?s high crossing at 300.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 291.00. Second support is Monday?s low crossing at 282.50.
September soybean oil closed up 55-pts. at 39.96.
September soybean oil closed higher on Friday and posted a new high close for the month. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If September extends this month?s rally, the 62% retracement level of this year?s decline crossing at 40.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 39.89. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year?s decline crossing at 40.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 38.94. Second support is Monday?s low crossing at 38.26.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.98 at $85.83.
August hogs closed higher on Friday as it extended this month?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month?s rally, May?s high crossing at 87.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.60 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today?s high crossing at 86.00. Second resistance is May?s high crossing at 87.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.60.
August bellies closed up $0.75 at $103.50.
August bellies closed high on Thursday as it extended Wednesday?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month?s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 107.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday?s high crossing at 104.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 107.30. First support is Wednesday?s low crossing at 99.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 94.00.
August cattle closed down $0.93 at 91.85.
August cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week?s decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.91. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off June?s low, May?s high crossing at 95.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday?s high crossing at 93.95. Second resistance is May?s high crossing at 95.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.90. Second support is today?s low crossing at 91.80.
August feeder cattle closed unchanged at $113.73.
August Feeder cattle closed unchanged on Friday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.92. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week?s decline, the reaction low crossing at 112.45 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday?s high crossing at 115.73 are needed to renew this summer?s rally. First resistance is Monday?s high crossing at 115.73. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 116.48. First support is today?s low crossing at 113.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 112.45.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Friday and posted a new high for the year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year?s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 17.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
September cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends this week?s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week?s rally, the reaction high crossing at 31.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 29.02 are needed to renew this month?s decline.
October sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May?s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. If October extends the rally off May?s low, the 75% retracement level of this year?s decline crossing at 20.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October cotton closed higher on Friday renewing this year?s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this year?s rally, the 62% retracement level of 2008?s decline crossing at 83.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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