INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - June 1, 2023, 4:49 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, June 2, 2023 



8:30 PM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

8:30 PM ET. May U.S. Employment Report

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +253K)

                       Unemployment Rate (previous 3.4%)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.36)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.16)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.48%)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.45%)

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

                       Government Payrolls (previous +23K)

                       Private Payroll (previous +230K)

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.6%)

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

  N/A              ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's trading.Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,246.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the . First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,399.48. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 34,257.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,399.25. Second support is the March 24th low crossing at 31,805.18.



The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday and posted a new high close for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 14,801.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,717.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 14,570.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 14,801.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,717.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,332.12.  



The June S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Thursday after the House past a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Wednesday evening. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at 4321.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4165.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4243.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at 4321.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4134.88. Second support is May's low crossing at 4062.25.      



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 18/32's at 128-29. 



September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-29. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130-14. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 125-30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19.



September T-notes closed up 100-pts. At 114.250.



June T-notes closed higher for the third-day in a row on Thursday as it extends this week's short covering rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.078 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 112.190 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.078. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.225. First support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 112.190. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $63.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.59. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $76.74. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $67.03. Second support is May's low crossing at $63.90.  



July heating oil closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $2.1550 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4434 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4434. Second resistance is the April 25th high crossing at $2.5326. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $2.2268. Second support is May's low crossing at $2.1550. 



July unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the May 15th low crossing at 2.3565 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5277 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.6803. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 2.6979. First support is the May 15th low crossing at 2.3565. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.2132.  



July Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off March's high, the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.542 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.442. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.542. First support is today's low crossing at 2.136. Second support is theSeptember-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed lower on Thursday and below the 25% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $103.586. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.884 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, the March 15th high crossing at 104.720 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at 104.720. Second resistance is the March 8t high crossing at 105.490. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.884. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.138.   



The June Euro closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.09335would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.05914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.07672. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08628. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1.06470. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.05914.



The June British Pound closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 1.2692 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 1.2293 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.2545. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.2692. First support is the May 25th low crossing at 1.2314. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.2293. 

 

The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.09131 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.11699 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.11699. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 1.13940. First support is the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.09131. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.07646. 



The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.13 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the May 16th high crossing at 74.66 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 73.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 16th high crossing at 74.66. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 75.18. First support is April's low crossing at 73.23. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 73.02.  



The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073213 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.069908 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073213. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.074727. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071337. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.069908.    



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2020.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1925.20. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2012.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $2085.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1941.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.  



July silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.285 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.541 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.285. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.656. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.541. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 21.705.  



July copper closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7315 would signal that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.4383 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7316. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9017. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.4683. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.3261.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed down $0.01 1/2-cents at $5.92 1/2. 



July corn closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.04 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $5.77 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.04 3/4. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at $6.47 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.77 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.47. 



July wheat closed up $0.16 1/2-cents at $6.10 3/4.  



July wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.25 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If July renews the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.25 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.57 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.73 1/4. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71. 



July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.12-cents at $8.02 1/2.



July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of May's rally crossing at $7.59 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.37 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.17 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.37 3/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of May's rally crossing at $7.59 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.36 1/4.



July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.09-cents crossing at $7.89.



July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $8.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.42 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.26 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.42 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.75 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.69.  

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed down $0.29 3/4-cents at $13.29 1/2.



July soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.60 3/4 would signal that a low has been posted. If July extends this year's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at $12.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.13 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $12.70 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at $12.12.



July soybean meal closed up $8.00 at $401.40. 



July soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $365.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $433.60. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $386.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $365.60. 



July soybean oil closed up 166-pts. at 47.86. 



July soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.32 would signal that a low has been posted. If July renews this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 40.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.13. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 44.53. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 40.19. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $1.28 at $82.05. 



July hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this year's decline, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at $72.98 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.63 Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.33. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $74.02. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at $72.98.  



August cattle closed up $4.70 at $172.38. 



August cattle closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's rally eclipsed the previous all-time high that was posted in January-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. With August now trading in uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.44 would signal that a double top with April's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $165.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.44.      



August Feeder cattle closed up $2.48 at $241.65. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $245.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $231.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $242.05. Second resistance is the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $245.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $231.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $226.80. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $16.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.51. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $19.44. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $17.56. Second support is March's low crossing near $16.56. 



July cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 32.15 is the next upside target.  



July sugar closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.30 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 26.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.             



July cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 87.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 82.15 would signal that a top has been posted.    

Comments
By metmike - June 2, 2023, midnight
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Huge dichotomy between the much drier European model and the American, GFS model. 


1. 12z EE model- Around 1 inch for much of the Cornbelt

2. 12z GEFS model-close to 2 inches for most places

3. Last 18z GEFS model with the better color scheme(can't get that for the EE model). Still almost double the EE, like the previous 12z run.


I continue to be on the side of the EE model based on the pattern. Not a blocking heat ridge. Just temps near average and rains below but still SOME rains.

Overall the drought areas will be EXPANDING the next 2 weeks with this forecast.