Please don't wonder why I put ethanol in the title of the 1st post
I was thinking about our lost ethanol market but got side tracked into another discussion and did not change the title
Do you think the majority of people understand why some countries have high tarriffs
Do they know that after the 2nd war, devastated countries needed some help to rebuild
As part of the plan the EU, China and Japan was allowed to erect trade barriers to give their exports a helping hand to increase sales and revenue to rebuild
Also most of the EU decided food production was a national security issue as during the war, imported food was scarce and many experienced rations and just plain did not have enough food
Thus Eu ag subsidies started and the people will not forget for a long time
Thus trade barriers of all sorts were born after WW11
Well that time of rebuilding is over, but the people have become used to having these protections and a sudden change to different trade rules, is very hard, if not impossible, to accept
I can't see these countries with trade barriers suddenly agreeing, with the the USA position on trade barriers
I know Trump is speaking the truth about trade and it should have been done long ago, but there comes a time when something has to happen
I think the various counties involved with Trump will not change very quickly, if at all
The best will be some small proposed changes which Trump will not accept
If anything, nothing changes and trump is forced to increase the pressure. What else can he do
What can the other side do, given their comfort level with trade barriers, as it is today
Everybody feels the pain, but nothing will happen
Nobody blinks and SA farmers are so happy, with a weaker currency and higher prices they expand soybean acreage as new land suddenly becomes profitable. NA feels the pain with lost markets
Somebody builds a new production plant while others close down
Winners and losers as the world economy adjust to new prices
Price and profits drive most free economies
I fear the eventual end will happen with a currency crisis
A strong USD and weaker currency in other countries has to upset the apple cart in ways we can not imagine
A loss of currency confidence will do more harm, more quickly thqn a person can imagine
We have the Turkish lira and venuzuala today
Who is the next to fall and will this be a domino affect as trade is restricted
I have to think the consumer will be the ultimate loser and millions or billions of people, that lose purchasing power will lead to a recession or very possibly a depression or the ultimate disaster :WW4 starting on a limited scale. That is a dangerous policy with unintended consequences
But, what is the answer to avoid any, of many possible unintended consequences
A reset in currency is possible, and not being taken lightly with several people, who have studied possible end result
I think most countries will not change current trade practices, as the upheaval to their own economy is to much to accept
I know our dairy industry and markets would be decimated
I have to think most every other country have thought about their own situation, thus nothing major will happen except more pain for everybody, until all heck happens
I don't think Trump will win this one in a quick settlement with so many countries involved
Trump might not win this trade war without serious pain and tensions could reach the boiling point
Depression or war is a real possibility
This has happened before and I can't see why this time is different
It doesn't have to be the same reason for war or depression, but war happens when somebody decides the pain is too much to tolerate, and somebody strikes back
No different than when somebody tripped you in school and you fell on your face. At some point the anger boils over into a serious confrontation
Nobody is very happy today except the "perceived" school yard bully, is at the centre of attention, even if the school yard bully has a good reason, for his/her actions
Perception can be considered differently in most every situation
We think/know we are correct
The other side says any major changes are unacceptable
Does anybody see a another long term "end result"