For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9419/
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
September Natural Gas Called Marginally Lower Despite Hot August, Tight Storage
8:57 AM
September natural gas prices were set to open less than a penny lower at $2.751 ahead of Thursday’s market open amid mixed weather trends and in anticipation of fresh storage data from the Energy Information Administration
Storage is LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matterss.
Storage is at the bottom of the 5 year average:
Big drawdown in SouthCentral from the intense heat in TX last week.
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/20/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 07/20/18 | 07/13/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 527 | 507 | 20 | 20 | 624 | -15.5 | 630 | -16.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 524 | 501 | 23 | 23 | 742 | -29.4 | 686 | -23.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 145 | 144 | 1 | 1 | 197 | -26.4 | 174 | -16.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 257 | 259 | -2 | -2 | 294 | -12.6 | 311 | -17.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 820 | 838 | -18 | -18 | 1,122 | -26.9 | 1,028 | -20.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 214 | 230 | -16 | -16 | 310 | -31.0 | 286 | -25.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 606 | 608 | -2 | -2 | 813 | -25.5 | 741 | -18.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,273 | 2,249 | 24 | 24 | 2,978 | -23.7 | 2,830 | -19.7 | |||||||||||||||||
These were the temperatures for the 7 day period which passed for that EIA ng storage report:
These were the temperatures for the last 7 day period for this next EIA report.......much cooler, especially Midwest(N/C Plains were coolest but not many people live there-so not as much residential cooling demand in Summer)... so a much bigger injection coming up this Thursday:
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
|
Seasonals based on historical prices.
EIA storage +35 Billion Cubic Feet-Very Bullish! Heat in the West to TX caused drawdowns in the Pacific and South Central regions.
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/27/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 07/27/18 | 07/20/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 552 | 527 | 25 | 25 | 647 | -14.7 | 650 | -15.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 552 | 524 | 28 | 28 | 752 | -26.6 | 707 | -21.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 146 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 200 | -27.0 | 178 | -18.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 250 | 257 | -7 | -7 | 293 | -14.7 | 313 | -20.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 808 | 820 | -12 | -12 | 1,104 | -26.8 | 1,025 | -21.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 203 | 214 | -11 | -11 | 298 | -31.9 | 279 | -27.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 604 | 606 | -2 | -2 | 806 | -25.1 | 746 | -19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,308 | 2,273 | 35 | 35 | 2,996 | -23.0 | 2,873 | -19.7 | |||||||||||||||||
From NGI:
IA Delivers Another Shocker, Reports 35 Bcf Storage Build; Natural Gas Markets Unfazed
Would say that the steady climb higher for over an hour is not "unfazed"
Today's EIA of +35 was, as noted by Mike, quite bullish. That includes in relation to the DJ news survey average, which had +44. So, it was a 9 bcf bullish miss for that. The prior two were also quite bullish with bullish misses of 10 bcf last week and 12 bcf the week before. One miss of 9 bcf is notable but I normally don't put too much weight on it for the longer term because of the chance of it being due to a statistical anomaly. However, three 9+ misses in a row in the same direction is very notable and significantly lessens the chance that there's merely a statistical anomaly.
When was the last times there were three weeks in a row that missed the DJ News survey average by 9+ bcf on the bullish side? Way back in November of 2011! Here is the data:
Week ending 11/11/11: actual missed 15 bcf to the bullish side
Week ending 11/18/11: actual missed 10.5 bcf to the bullish side
Week ending 11/25/11: actual missed 11 bcf to the bullish side
Thanks a ton larry!