Severe weather outbreak likely on Friday(3-31-23)!
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Started by metmike - March 27, 2023, 4:21 p.m.

This page will be constantly updated all week

After the deadly Mississippi tornadoes last week that killed 26 people, many folks in the path of this next system will be extremely anxious. This is normal. As a meteorologist, I've spent some time helping people with severe weather phobia.

Here is some advice to help people/children that have a major phobia of severe weather:

https://adaa.org/living-with-anxiety/managing-anxiety/hurricane-season-here-how-reduce-your-anxiety


Advice from Meteorologists on Dealing with Storm Anxiety

https://www.weather.gov/oun/stormanxiety

The vivid images of the destroyed homes last week are testament to the power of a violent tornado. However, let's try to let our heads rule our emotions. In the United States, there are 332,000,000 people. On average, 42,000 of them will die in car accidents. This is an accepted risk. So we put on our seat belts, drive defensively and don't have panic attacks every time we have to get in a car. With tornadoes, on average 80 people are killed each year. 525 times less than car accidents.  

Of course the threat from tornadoes is extremely elevated in specific locations at specific times. However, even in the highest violent tornado risk situations, the odds of YOU being hit are still very small. You can greatly increase your chances of surviving, even if a violent tornado hits by being prepared! Knowing this and understanding the realities/science helps to provide a feeling of empowerment that helps lessen the fear.               

Tornado Safety

https://www.weather.gov/mqt/tornadotips

++++++++++++++

Back to the meteorology, giving you a 4 days heads up on this one that will affect areas MUCH farther north,  compared to the previous outbreak. All the way to IA/WI

Here on Monday, Friday, is currently day 5 on the outlook below. As we get closer, the Severe Storm Prediction Center will refine the risk area and probabilities. You can also read their daily discussions below the risk maps. 

The large 30% area for 5 days out is likely to end up having some moderate risk in it as we get closer. There will be strong tornado potential if the favorable dynamics come together on future model outlooks.  

Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                                                     

Entire comprehensive weather pages, constantly updated here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/


Previous severe weather discussion:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93984/


                More atmospheric rivers/La Nina is dead           

               https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93716/       

Comments
By metmike - March 27, 2023, 4:34 p.m.
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This is the forecast for Friday Night from the last 12z GFS run from 3-27-23.

Impressive jet stream at 250 mb/34,000 feet means intense storms with some tornadoes a given. The 150 knot red shade of the jet max in the center is 180 mph! That's some pretty strong upper level divergence(that causes lift and rising air) and a textbook severe weather outbreak signature with potential strong tornadoes.

Still unknown are details on lower levels and their likely interaction with this powerful jet stream.

I've seen 200 knot jet streaks before which would be the yellow, so this isn't the MOST powerful ever but it's up there and  will likely produce the affects noted above because of the laws of physics and meteorology. 



Use the tables at this link:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93984/#94059





By metmike - March 28, 2023, 4:27 p.m.
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More junk/biased science and sensationalism.

More killer tornados will hit the South as global warming creates dangerous new weather patterns, study says

https://fortune.com/2023/03/28/tornado-supercells-more-frequent-southern-us-global-warming-study/

That study is evidence of nothing more than what modelers can simulate (a fake atmosphere) by feeding in the mathematical equations and information they choose based on exploiting junk science to create outcomes which support their personal beliefs. 

Authentic science gives greatest weight to observations and empirical data. When forced to choose between observations and the simulations that contradict them, many of today’s mainstream climate scientists pick the fake atmosphere! That makes sense for modelers because they convince themselves that they are right since producing model output is what they do.

Recent Tornadoes are Due to Unusually Cold Weather

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31370/#31626


https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/05/recent-tornadoes-are-due-to-unusually-cold-weather/


95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78406/#78407


https://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/02/95-of-climate-models-agree-the-observations-must-be-wrong/

CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013

                Science corruption                      

                Started by metmike - March 20, 2023, 5:50 p.m.          

  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93926/

By metmike - March 29, 2023, 11:11 a.m.
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Next Tuesday, April 4th also has a risk of another widespread,  severe weather outbreak. Continuing early on Wednesday, April 5th. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94148/

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

Overnight April 4/5 jet stream at 250 mb above. Another textbook severe weather outbreak for the Spring season based on enough very warm/humid, buoyant/unstable air surging northward at that time of year., underneath a powerful jet stream that maximizes the lift ahead of a surface cold front that focus's/maximizes the lift at the contact point of  where the cold dense air is getting underneath the warmer lighter air at ground level and pushing it upwards!

The greater the rising motion, the more unstable it is. Add in the dynamics from veering winds with height(winds changing direction/speed going) that cause a thunderstorm to rotate and you have the recipe for a rotating supercell that can spin up tornadoes. 

Not all supercells spawn tornadoes and all tornadoes don't come from them.


Tornado on the plains

NSSL NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory

Tornadoes come from mainly two types of thunderstorms:  supercell and non-supercell.

https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/tornadoes/types/

By metmike - March 29, 2023, 8:09 p.m.
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Tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center will pin down the upcoming risks for Friday with more detail:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

By metmike - March 30, 2023, 8:44 a.m.
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As expected, the early Thursday update has added 2 areas with a moderate risk, 2nd highest Possible for Friday.

I’ll show that when back in the office with individual risks. You can get that on the top page of this discussion too. Just hit the day 2 graphic on the screen.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94148/

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Specific risks these are snapshots that don’t update!

1. Risk for a tornado within 25 miles of where you are. +10% in the moderate risk areas. Note the 15% area AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/KY borders. This is the main area of concern. Severe thunderstorm winds rarely kill people. Violent, long track tornadoes do. See discussion below.

2. Risk for thunderstorm winds of 58+ mph within 25 miles of where you are. 45% along IA/IL border

3. Risk for large hail within 25 mile radius. Highest IA/IL border


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Risk for next Tuesday/early Wednesday 3-4/5-2023



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EF (enhanced Fujita scale:

The worst of the Mississippi tornadoes was a low end EF4!

https://www.weather.gov/oun/efscale

EF Rating3 Second Gust (mph)
EF SCALE
065-85
186-110
2111-135
3136-165
4166-200
5Over 200


http://www.tornadoproject.com/cellar/fscale.htm


Note below:

F4 +F5 tornadoes = only 1% of all tornadoes= 67% of deaths!!!!

F3 tornadoes =20% of all tornadoes =29% of deaths.

F1 +F2 tornadoes =76% of tornadoes =4% of deaths






pie chart showing percent of  all tornadoes by Fujita Scale class


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pie chart showing percentage of tornado related deaths by Fujita Scale class

Tornado intensity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_intensity

 

A diagram of the Fujita scale as it relates to the Beaufort scale and the Mach number scale

By metmike - March 31, 2023, 10:04 a.m.
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The storm prediction center has just increased their moderate risk area. This was anticipated since my Monday post. It’s possible they could insert a high risk into a small area later today.

Timing is 5-11pm for main event! Could be adjusted by a few hours.

Risk maps below

1. Overall risk map 

For Evansville IN

2. Risk of a tornado within 25 miles of any point = Near 15%. Long track, violent tornadoes are possible

3. Risk of 58+ mph wind in thunderstorm within 25 miles of you =30%+

4. Risk of large hail in thunderstorm within 25 miles = Near 15%. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html



By metmike - March 31, 2023, 10:37 a.m.
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Starting late this afternoon in Evansville, IN: MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND HAVE A SAFE PLACE in case a tornado warning is issued!

https://www.weather.gov/pah/weatherstory

https://www.weather.gov/pah/

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=289&y=87&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=289&map_y=87#.ZBxtnPbMJGw


Local Radar Image

By metmike - March 31, 2023, 1:17 p.m.
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The Severe Storm Prediction Center has just added 2 pockets of HIGH risk, which is the top level. This is a snapshot image, for the rest of the afternoon but not updated below. Use the link for updates:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html




Monitor the latest national/regional weather conditions using this constantly update thread below. I'm trying to not let this one get too bogged down with information that we have already elsewhere:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

By metmike - March 31, 2023, 4:38 p.m.
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3:30pm: This is nothing unprecedented. We usually have several severe weather outbreaks each year very similar to this. It's part of normal/average weather.

What's different is our ability to communicate it. 

The media over sensationalizes extreme weather that has NOT increased. That's a bad thing.

However, in this case it's a good thing to increase awareness that can save lives if it results in better preparation for people in the path of strong tornadoes.

Detected tornadoes suddenly doubled in the 1990's.  This was entirely from a leap forward in technology with the installation of NEXRAD Doppler radars around the country. Unlike previous radar systems, these can see the wind and detect tornadoes. The smaller tornadoes often went undetected prior to this technology and it was those type of tornadoes that saw the entire increase. The strongest tornadoes, EF3+ have actually been decreasing from climate change.

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/05/recent-tornadoes-are-due-to-unusually-cold-weather/

++++++++++++

https://www.ustornadoes.com/annual-tornadoes/


The spike in 2011 below was mostly from 1 event that featured the Joplin, MO tornado.



By metmike - March 31, 2023, 6:48 p.m.
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5:50pm: Current time frame for the main threat looks like 9-11pm-ish in Evansville based on the location and speed of the broken line of storms to our west.

However, so far the reports of major severe weather and tornadoes have all been farther north and south and this part of the storm, in between has been fairly quiet. There could be rapid evening development, especially from storms coming from the southwest on our local radar below.

The main risk later this evening will be from severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 70 mph.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

SPC Products Overview


https://www.weather.gov/pah/

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=289&y=87&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=289&map_y=87#.ZBxtnPbMJGw

Local Radar Image


7pm: No serious threat from severe weather the next couple of hours. 

By metmike - March 31, 2023, 8:36 p.m.
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The threat is staying in places far north and south of Evansville, NOT headed here at the moment but new development is likely in the next few hours.


Tornado damage from Little Rock, southern part of the storm.

https://www.thv11.com/video/weather/drone-footage-of-little-rock-tornado-damage/91-a22af789-637c-49d0-8362-3ddc6e00efec

Large Tornado Hits Little Rock—Major Damage Reported

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/03/31/large-tornado-hits-little-rock-major-damage-reported/?sh=3bcf6d923219


They just issued a new tornado watch.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0098.html

WW0098 Radar

By metmike - March 31, 2023, 8:57 p.m.
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8pm: Just watch this radar image and it will show you the storms that are headed this way a long time before they get here.

There are some nasty looking ones pretty far west right now, so I'll adjust the time frame to later based on that.


Main threat close to 10pm?

https://www.weather.gov/pah/

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=289&y=87&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=289&map_y=87#.ZBxtnPbMJGw

Local Radar Image

By metmike - March 31, 2023, 9:55 p.m.
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Winds are gusting to near 50 mph even without a thunderstorm.

It won't take much to get to 58+ mph with the storms about to hit for a severe thunderstorm warning.

Orange shade are severe thunderstorm warnings NO TORNADOES reported yet.

First severe thunderstorm warning may be coming in a few minutes.


        https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=292&y=88&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=292&map_y=88#.ZCeOjPbMIhc                                                                                                                                        

Humidity73%
Wind SpeedS 30 G 48 mph
Barometer29.61 in (1002.4 mb)
Dewpoint61°F (16°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Last update                31 Mar 7:54 pm CDT            


There we go........Tornado warning for the southern corner of Vanderburgh county.

That storm is NOT a threat to Evansville or northward.

Another small line segment of severe storms between Mt. Vernon and Carbondale Il tht may be here in just over an hour.

After that one passes thru, the storms should be over.

Again, no strong tornadoes anywhere in this region so it looks like we should be ok but not for sure for another 90 minutes or so.


By metmike - April 1, 2023, 1:04 a.m.
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We got off easy in Southern Indiana this time! Updated summary.


Updated data below:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230331_rpts.html

893 total reports of severe weather on Friday!

Tornadoes =100

High winds =462

Large Hail =331


By metmike - April 1, 2023, 11:21 a.m.
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There goes the surface low/storm that caused it. These are snapshots that won't update below.

Tight pressure gradient is causing the high winds. Note how packed the isobars are on the maps below.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=21&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#




By metmike - April 2, 2023, 3:34 p.m.
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We got off easy in Southern Indiana this time! 


Updated data thru 4-2-23 below:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230331_rpts.html

893 total reports of severe weather on Friday!

Tornadoes =100

High winds =462

Large Hail =331


By metmike - April 4, 2023, 12:26 a.m.
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Reports continue to be added to the event from 3-31-23.


Tornadoes =132

Wind =484

Hail =331

Total severe weather reports =947