Karen Braun@kannbwx

Mar 13

#Russia on Monday says it could agree to an extension of the Black Sea grain export deal, but only for a period of 60 days. The current deal expires Saturday if no formal objections are made.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Mar 13

#Brazil's total #corn crop in 2022/23 will reach 126.6 million tonnes, up 12% from last year, according to a new Reuters poll including 12 analysts. The increase is mainly driven by higher area, but yields are also seen higher vs last year.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

13h

USDA confirms the sale of 612,000 tonnes of U.S. #corn for delivery to #China in 2022/23.

This is the first flash sale of U.S. corn explicitly to China since Aug. 9 (133kt) and the largest since April 28 (612kt).

Karen Braun@kannbwx

12h

Second #corn is 61% planted in Parana, #Brazil, well behind the 5yr avg of 83% and slightly behind 2021 at 64% - making this year's pace the slowest in at least 15 years, maybe more. #Soybeans are 48% harvested, behind 64% avg and 52% in 2021.

@kannbwx

9h

The grain deal is extended Saturday if no party formally objects, which has not yet happened. Reports that Russia has agreed to the extension are only partly true because it wants a 60-day deal, not 120, which Ukraine says it is sticking by.

9h

Black Sea news, Tuesday March 14Russia says grain deal is extended, but only for 60 days (current deal expires March 18)Ukraine is sticking with original 120 day agreementUN in contact with all partiesUS drone downed by Russian jet in Black Sea

reuters.comRussian official: Black Sea grain deal extended for 60 days - TASSA Russian official said on Tuesday that a landmark deal allowing Ukraine to export grain through its Black Sea ports has been extended

Karen Braun@kannbwx

4h

Money managers staged a RECORD selloff in CBOT #corn fut+opt in the last week of February - net long slashed by 147,293 contracts - much, much more selling than was expected. Prior weekly record was 104k contracts in March 2017. Net long ended Feb just under 69k contracts.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

3h

Money managers halved their bullish bets across U.S. grain and oilseed futures and options in the last week of February - shedding a record 265k contracts from their combined net long across #corn, #wheat, #soybeans & soy products.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Mar 15

U.S. #ethanol production continues at a slightly below average but steady pace, though stocks as of Friday had climbed 6.5% over two weeks to 26.4M barrels - the fifth highest for any week on record.

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The four-week average of implied U.S. gasoline demand has jumped 13% since late January but remains around 4% below "normal" levels for the date. Very similar to year-ago at this point and well above 2021 levels.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Mar 15

NOPA U.S. crush, Feb 2023:165.414 mbu of #soybeans+0.2% vs Feb 2022, -0.5% from 2020 highBelow trade guess @ 166.06NOPA crush hasn't set monthly high since May 2022#Soyoil stocks 1.809 bln lbs; -12% YOYBelow trade @ 1.8861st oil stock decline in 5 months

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Mar 15

Purely for interest, I wanted to look at the timing of the early 2021 flash sales of U.S. #corn to #China vs futures. Here's the result. I didn't make any conclusions, but thought I'd share. May 7 marked the annual high for most-active/new-crop corn. Next flash wasn't until 2022.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

21h

Paranagua Port authorities in #Brazil are downplaying concerns that traffic disruptions near the port are delaying shipments of #soybeans. At least one grain trader has reported ships waiting up to 35 days to load. A single snapshot cannot tell the whole story, but here it is:

If you've been following me a while, you know how hard these are to come by. But this is all I have, so I'll share. The 15/16 season was notoriously busy/delayed but things eased in the following years even as soy shipments increased. March 2023 is expected to be record.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

5h

U.S. export sales were decent last week. Old-crop #soybeans were the highest since January led by #China. Japan, S Korea and Mexico bought #corn (no new sales to China last week). Philippines bought #wheat & #soymeal. #Sorghum sales of 293kt were a marketing year high.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

4h

#China plans to stabilize soy output by increasing subsidies and state purchases of domestic #soybeans, which are primarily for food use now. China wants to fill reserves w/ its own beans, but imported ones have been cheaper. China's crop accounts for only 18% of annual use.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

1h

The recent values are very similar to those from the Midwestern USA in spring 2019, when historic planting delays arose because of too much moisture and rain. Unsurprisingly, historic planting delays are ongoing for Parana's safrinha corn.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

·

1h

It's easy to see how harvest, planting and shipping delays have arisen in #Brazil's southern state of Parana given the soil moisture, which is currently at 6+ year highs (for any date).