KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 9, 2023
730 AM ET. February Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +136%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 190K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1655000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2114B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -81B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
N/A U.S. President Joe Biden announces FY'24 Budget
Friday, March 10, 2023
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +517K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.03)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.30%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.43%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.3)
Government Payrolls (previous +74K)
Private Payroll (previous +443K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government.
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as it extends Tuesday's sharp decline in response to Fed Chairman Powell who stated that interest rates could go higher. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,523.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,523.18. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 34,331.47. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 31,682.20.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,898.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 12,949.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,898.26. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 11,773.24.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 4082.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4082.50. Second resistance is the February 14th high crossing at 4186.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3925.00. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75.
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June T-bonds closed up 6/32's at 125-08.
June T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-22. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 121-27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10.
June T-notes closed down 25-pts. at 110.280.
June T-notes closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, last-October's low crossing at 109.215 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.317 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.317. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.206. First support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.198. Second support is last-October's low crossing at 109.215.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed lower on Wednesday following yesterday's huge key reversal down, which marked a double top with February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $75.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off the February 22nd low, January's high crossing at $82.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $80.94. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $75.83. Second support is the February 22ndlow crossing at $73.80.
April heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the February 17th low crossing at 2.6467 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9120 would renew the rally off February's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9120. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is today's low crossing at $2.7168. Second support is the February 17th low crossing at $2.6467.
April unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday following Tuesday's huge key reversal down signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 2.6235 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 2.8578 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.8122. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.8578. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.6235. Second support is the February 24th low crossing at 2.5195.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday's. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.If April resumes the decline off November's high, the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.953 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.953. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.667 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.574. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.113.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off February's low and tested the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.942. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $107.569 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.274 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.942. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $107.569. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.274. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.270.
The March Euro closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.03579 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07484 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.07484. Second resistance is the February 14th high crossing at $1.08245. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.05234. Second support the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.03579.
The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-December-2022 rally crossing at 1.1693 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2141 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2141. Second resistance is the February 14th high crossing at 1.2277. First support is today's low crossing at 1.1803. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December-2022 rally crossing at 1.1693.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday and themid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07592 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07592. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08373. First support is today's low crossing at 1.06000. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.91. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.25. First support is today's low crossing at 72.39. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 71.70.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high and closed below the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073141. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074412 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074412. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075972. First support is today's low crossing at 0.072550. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1772.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1880.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1880.40. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $1902.30. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1772.80.
May silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 19.499 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.479 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.479. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 22.810. First support is today's low crossing at 19.955. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 19.499.
May copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7966 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, the February 21st high crossing at 4.2130 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 21st high crossing at 4.2130. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3590. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9297. Second support is is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7966.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down $0.08 3/4-cents at $6.25 1/2.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday following a bearish WASDE supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off February's low, the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above broken support crossing at $6.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.38 3/4. Second resistance is broken support crossing at $6.48 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.22 1/4. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4.
May wheat closed down $0.10 1/2-cents at $6.87 1/2.
May wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54. First support is today's low crossing at $6.84 1/4. Second support is the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.01-cent at $8.00 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. If May extends the decline off February's high, the February 2nd 2022 low crossing at $7.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.52 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.17 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.52 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $7.89 3/4. Second support isthe February 2nd 2022 low crossing at $7.84.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.14 1/4-cents crossing at $8.38 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the July-2021-low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.14 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.93 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.93 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $8.37. Second support is the July-2021-low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.14 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed up $0.02 1/4-cents at $15.17 3/4.
May soybeans closed slightly higher on Wednesday following today's friendly WASDE supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, February's high crossing at $15.49 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $15.07 1/4 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.38 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $15.49 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $14.77 3/4. Second support is the January 5th low crossing at $14.72.
May soybean meal closed down $2.10 at $485.70.
May soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $478.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $498.00. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $478.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $467.10.
May soybean oil closed up 42-pts. At 59.08.
May soybean oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.78. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 63.83. First support is December's low crossing at 58.22. Second support is the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.36.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.88 at $85.68.
April hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.34 would confirm that a shorty-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $81.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.34 would confirm that a shorty-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $89.88. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $83.20. Second support is February's low crossing at $81.28.
April cattle closed down $0.53 at $165.45.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $163.85 would confirm a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $162.94. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $166.68. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $162.94. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at $160.20.
May Feeder cattle closed up $1.95 at $206.15.
May Feeder cattle closed higher for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low to a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $197.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $206.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $200.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $197.75.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.14 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $19.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $19.54. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $20.78. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.14. Second support is the January 20th low crossing at $15.29.
May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 21.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the November-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 78.80 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 89.31 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!