INO Morning Market Commentary
0 responses | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - March 8, 2023, 7:47 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 188.5)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.7%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 138.8)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.6%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 444)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.5%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. February ADP National Employment Report

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +106000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -67.42B)

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 250.15B)

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 317.57B)

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 480.207M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.166M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous -1.192M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.874M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 122.114M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.179M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 85.8%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.413M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.195M)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

Thursday, March 9, 2023  

 



 

 

730 AM ET. February Challenger Job-Cut Report

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +136%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 190K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1655000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2114B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -81B)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. President Joe Biden announces FY'24 Budget

 



 

 

Friday, March 10, 2023   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +517K)

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous 3.4%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.03)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.30%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.43%)

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.3)

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +74K)

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +443K)

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.4%)

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government.

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. Overnight trading set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 12,486.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 11,773.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high average crossing at 12,486.25. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 11,773.24. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-February rallycrossing at 11,494.88.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 4082.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4082.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 122-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-22. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 122-06. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120-07.  



June T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a mostly steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.316 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, last-October's low crossing at 109.215 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.316. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.205. First support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.198. Second support is last-October's low crossing at 109.215. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's huge key reversal down. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $75.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the February 22nd low crossing at $73.80. If April resumes the rally off the February 22nd low, January's high crossing at $82.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $80.94. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is the February 22nd low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.  



April heating oil is was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the February 23rd low crossing at $2.6517 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9134 would renew the rally off February's low while opening the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at $3.0487. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9134. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is the February 23rd low crossing at $2.6517. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. 



April unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.6410 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off the February 24th low, January's high crossing at $2.8578 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $2.8122. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.8578. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.6410. Second support is the February 24th low crossing at $2.5195. Third support is February's low crossing at $2.4671.    



April natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.577 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 3.027 would open the door for additional short covering gains and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.667. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.027. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.667. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.577. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.113.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resume the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.276 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $106.775. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.276. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.271.  



The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.03579 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07483 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06564. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.05234. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.03579.



The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.1693 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2141 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2141. Second resistance is the February 14th high crossing at 1.2277. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1811. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.1693.  



The March Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08369 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07582. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08369. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.06000. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461.

 

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, November's low crossing at $72.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.92. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.26. First support is November's low crossing at $72.58. Second support is last-October's low crossing at $71.70.  



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071714 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074413 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074413. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075972. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.072550. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071714.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



Aprilgold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1880.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1880.40. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $1902.30. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80.



May silver was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.458 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.483 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.483. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $22.810. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $19.499. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $18.628.     



May copper was higher overnight while extending the February-March trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 21st high crossing at 4.2130 or below the February 27th low crossing at 3.9370 would mark a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would likely point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the February 21st high crossing at 4.2130. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four trading sessions. Trading is likely to remain subdued ahead of this morning's release of the latest WASDE report. We could see the USDA make further reductions in export demand for corn, which could provide some downside pressure to the market. However, it was hawkish comments from FED chairman Powell who indicated an increase likelihood of more aggressive increases in interest rates to help curb inflation, which may provide some near-term downside pressure to the corn market. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above above broken support crossing at $6.48 1/4 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $6.42 3/4. Second resistance is broken support crossing at $6.48 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.22 1/4. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4.  



May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high.  Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.10 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $6.89 1/2. Second support is the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4. 



May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the January 10th -2022 low crossing at $7.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.52 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.17 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.52 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $7.94. Second support is the January 10th -2022 low crossing at $7.62.



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the February 4th-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.69 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.02. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.49 1/2. Second support is the February 4th-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans were lower overnight as they consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening as traders await the latest data from the WASDE report due to be released later this morning. Traders are looking for further cuts to Argentina's soybean crop by the USDA. However, it is unlikely that any such cuts will catch the market by surprise as it is unlikely that the USDA will lower Argentina's production to levels currently being talked about by private analysts. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $15.07 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, February's high crossing $15.49 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.38 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $15.49 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $14.77 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4.

 

May soybean meal was lower overnight following Tuesday's downside reversal as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $467.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $467.10. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $441.40.



May soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-October-2022 rally crossing at 56.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.78. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 63.83. First support is the 75% retracement level of the July-October-2022 rally crossing at 58.36. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-October-2022 rally crossing at 56.24.


Comments
No replies yet. Be the first!