Decided to start over to make this more current at the top:
Crude down more than another $1 at the moment, below $68.
From Reuters:
“Despite a rise in refinery runs, a cratering in crude exports last week yielded a whopping crude build of 5.6 million barrels on the Gulf Coast - leading to a solid build of 3.8 million barrels for total U.S. stocks,” said Matt Smith, director of commodities research at ClipperData."
"Gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI fell 2.5 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel drop."
"Distillate stockpiles USOILD=ECI, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 3 million barrels, versus expectations for a 264,000-barrel increase, the data showed."
“Despite the crude oil inventory rise, the report is supportive of prices. Demand for crude oil from refiners is very high, and gasoline demand remains sky-high, as well,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital Management in New York. "
“U.S. oil production growth appears to have stalled out and actually declined a fair amount on the week.”
Crude possibly taking out the short term uptrend line down $1at the moment but still in a longer term uptrend.
Crude 3 month chart
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Crude1year chart below
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Crude 5 year chart below
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Crude10 year chart below
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Unleaded Gasoline Price Charts: Uptrend on longer term price chart......bull flag short term(or top?)
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5 year........are we headed back to the highs?
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Here are the gas prices at the pump:
https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPriceMap?z=4
Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil. Peaked in March 2017 and have been falling sharply since then. Now the lowest in 3.5 years:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W
Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline. Barely peaked in Feb 2017 but have not dropped much...........similar this month to July 2017...still fairly high:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W
Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast). Peaked in Feb 2017 and have PLUNGED to the lowest in 4 years and almost the lowest in 10 years:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W
By Jim_M - July 30, 2018, 1:58 p.m.
Even if crude stays at the price it is at, a long roll will net you about $2k a month on 1 contract.
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By metmike - July 30, 2018, 2:18 p.m.
Good point Jim!
Crude for the front month is priced higher than back months...........this is an inverted price structure and considered bullish. Contango (sounds like a Spanish dance).
Normal backwardation is when prices are higher in the back months.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/contango_backwardation.asp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXhQNRsH3uc
Here on Thursday, CLU is back up to $69, up over a buck.