KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 2, 2023
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 195K; previous 192K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1654000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -37K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity and Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +2.5%; previous +0.8%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.6%; previous +2.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2195B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -71B)
12:00 PM ET. February Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
N/A Texas Independence Day
N/A SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
Friday, March 3, 2023
9:45 AM ET. February US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 50.5; previous 46.8)
10:00 AM ET. February ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 54.3; previous 55.2)
Business Activity Idx (previous 60.4)
Prices Idx (previous 67.8)
Employment Idx (previous 50.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.4)
11:00 AM ET. February Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.1)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,810.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,363.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,3637.26. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 11,773.24. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-February rallycrossing at 11,494.88.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4072.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4072.95. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-10. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 119-14.
March T-notes were slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.077 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.059. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.077. First support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035. Second support is last-October's low crossing at 109.060.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If April renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil is was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the February 17th low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9172 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while renewing the rally off February's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.7808 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9172. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.7808. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.6350.
April unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last-Friday's low, February's high crossing at $2.7303 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $2.4671 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $2.7303. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.8578. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $2.5195. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.4671.
April natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.099 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.535 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.788. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.099. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.899 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resume the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $105.320. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.898. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.181.
The March Euro was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07546 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06999. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07546. First support is January's low crossing at $1.05290. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.03601.
The March British Pound was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2157 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2157. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is the February 17th low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.
The March Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08539 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.07262. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08539. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.06040. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $73.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.28. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $73.18. Second support is January's low crossing at $73.10.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075125 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.074014. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075125. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1858.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1858.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1879.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80.
March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.748 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.260. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.748. First support Tuesday's low crossing at $20.475. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.325.
March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, February's high crossing at 4.2370 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0499 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher overnight following Wednesday's upside reversal that suggest this week's huge sell off has come to an end. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.67 1/2 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.67 1/2. Second resistance is the February 21st high crossing at $6.82 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $6.22 1/4. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4.
May wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.59 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.59 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $8.07 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.01 3/4. Second support is the Sept.-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.65 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.54 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.65 3/4. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the January-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.06. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $8.63. Second support is the January-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 25th low crossing at $14.76 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.18 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.09 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.18 1/2. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.76. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4.
May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp sell off. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $463.50 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $463.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $446.80.
May soybean oil was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the February 10th low crossing at 59.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.04. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 59.04. Second support is February's low crossing at 58.70.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.28 at $84.90.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $81.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.28 would confirm that a shorty-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.28. First support is today's low crossing at $84.08. Second support is February's low crossing at $81.28.
April cattle closed down $0.35 at $165.13.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $166.40. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $162.43.
May Feeder cattle closed down $0.68 at $198.95.
May Feeder cattle posted a huge key reversal down on Wednesday as it ended a six-day rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $195.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $201.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $196.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $195.66.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $19.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $19.54. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $20.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.00.
May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally to a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed higher on Wednesday and spiked above February's trading range crossing at 20.52. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above 20.52 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of February's trading. If May resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 23.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 7th low crossing at 19.43 would open the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.27.
May cotton closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.52 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's high, January's high crossing at 89.31 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 78.80 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!