Natural Gas Wednesday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 10:20 a.m.

For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9309/


The weather forecast has turned cooler(less hot) in the Midwest and surrounding areas, especially in week 2 over the last 24 hours but there is still some heat coming. 

This is why nat gas is lower.

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 10:21 a.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 10:22 a.m.
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Storage is LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matterss. 

Storage is at the bottom of the 5 year average:

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 10:23 a.m.
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From last Thursday:

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report       +22BCF---bullish!

       

Big drawdown in SouthCentral from the intense heat in TX last week.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(07/20/17)
5-year average
(2013-17) 
Region07/20/1807/13/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East527  507  20  20   624  -15.5  630  -16.3  
Midwest524  501  23  23   742  -29.4  686  -23.6  
Mountain145  144  1  1   197  -26.4  174  -16.7  
Pacific257  259  -2  -2   294  -12.6  311  -17.4  
South Central820  838  -18  -18   1,122  -26.9  1,028  -20.2  
   Salt214  230  -16  -16   310  -31.0  286  -25.2  
   Nonsalt606  608  -2  -2   813  -25.5  741  -18.2  
Total2,273  2,249  24  24   2,978  -23.7  2,830  -19.7  


By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 10:23 a.m.
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These were the temperatures for the 7 day period which passed for that EIA ng storage report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180720.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 10:24 a.m.
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These were the temperatures for the last 7 day period for this next EIA report.......much cooler, especially Midwest(N/C Plains were coolest but not many people live there-so not as much residential cooling demand in Summer)... so a much bigger injection coming up this Thursday:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180727.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 10:26 a.m.
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Natural gas 3 months
         


Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below

                   

Naturalgas10years below                
                   
By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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Seasonals based on historical prices.

Erdgas Future saisonal

By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 6:37 p.m.
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From Natural Gas Intelligence

Closing comments from Wednesday:

September Natural Gas Futures Slide on Production, Cooler Weather

     5:44 PM    

September natural gas prices retreated for a second day Wednesday as cooler-trending weather fanned out any remaining flames left after bearish production data was reported Tuesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Spot gas prices were mixed amid mostly comfortable weather on tap in the near term, save for parts of the West. The NGI National Spot Gas Average was $2.85, up 7 cents on the day.