For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9309/
The weather forecast has turned cooler(less hot) in the Midwest and surrounding areas, especially in week 2 over the last 24 hours but there is still some heat coming.
This is why nat gas is lower.
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
September Natural Gas Called Penny Lower on Cooler Weather Trends, Bearish Production Data
Storage is LOW for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matterss.
Storage is at the bottom of the 5 year average:
Big drawdown in SouthCentral from the intense heat in TX last week.
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/20/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 07/20/18 | 07/13/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 527 | 507 | 20 | 20 | 624 | -15.5 | 630 | -16.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 524 | 501 | 23 | 23 | 742 | -29.4 | 686 | -23.6 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 145 | 144 | 1 | 1 | 197 | -26.4 | 174 | -16.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 257 | 259 | -2 | -2 | 294 | -12.6 | 311 | -17.4 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 820 | 838 | -18 | -18 | 1,122 | -26.9 | 1,028 | -20.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 214 | 230 | -16 | -16 | 310 | -31.0 | 286 | -25.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 606 | 608 | -2 | -2 | 813 | -25.5 | 741 | -18.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 2,273 | 2,249 | 24 | 24 | 2,978 | -23.7 | 2,830 | -19.7 | |||||||||||||||||
These were the temperatures for the 7 day period which passed for that EIA ng storage report:
These were the temperatures for the last 7 day period for this next EIA report.......much cooler, especially Midwest(N/C Plains were coolest but not many people live there-so not as much residential cooling demand in Summer)... so a much bigger injection coming up this Thursday:
Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
Naturalgas10years below |
Seasonals based on historical prices.
From Natural Gas Intelligence
Closing comments from Wednesday:
September Natural Gas Futures Slide on Production, Cooler Weather
5:44 PM
September natural gas prices retreated for a second day Wednesday as cooler-trending weather fanned out any remaining flames left after bearish production data was reported Tuesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Spot gas prices were mixed amid mostly comfortable weather on tap in the near term, save for parts of the West. The NGI National Spot Gas Average was $2.85, up 7 cents on the day.