KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 362.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 245.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 988.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
8:15 AM ET. July ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +185000; previous +177000)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement
9:45 AM ET. July US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 55.5; previous 55.4)
10:00 AM ET. June Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. June Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (expected 59.5; previous 60.2)
Prices Idx (previous 76.8)
Employment Idx (previous 56.0)
Inventories (previous 50.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 63.5)
Production Idx (previous 62.3)
10:00 AM ET. July Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 404.937M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.147M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 233.504M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.328M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 121.21M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.101M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.7M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.398M)
11:00 AM ET. July Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.00)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.75)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 8)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.25)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
4:00 PM ET. July Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (expected 17.10M; previous 17.47M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as U.S.-China trade tensions returned to center stage after some White House advisers pushed for planned tariffs to be sharply increased.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7211.77 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7353.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7211.77. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2802.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 2885.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2846.31. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2802.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2769.82.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 142-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-09. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.
September T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 118.295 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.286 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.286. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: SeptemberNymex crude oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 72.98 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 70.43. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98. First support is July's low crossing at 66.29. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.
September heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 213.91 would signal an end to the rally off July's low. If September resumes the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 223.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.73. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.85.
September unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 206.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 215.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 217.41. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.
September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.753 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.856 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.856. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.753. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.671.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the May-July trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 93.87 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-August. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, July's high crossing at 95.44 is the next upside target. From a broad perspective, closes above July's high crossing at 95.44 or below June's low crossing at 92.76 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is July's high crossing at 95.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is July's low crossing at 99.44. Second support is June's low crossing at 92.76.
The September Euro was slightly lower overnight while extending the May-July trading range. However, stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. From a broad perspective, closes above June's high crossing at 119.40 or below June's low crossing at 115.82 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is July's high crossing at 118.52. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 119.40. First support is June's low crossing at 115.82. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3286 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2862 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3286. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3403. First support is July's low crossing at 1.2988. Second support is is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2862.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above July's high crossing at 1.0204 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.
The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 77.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.28 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Tuesday's decline, July's low crossing at 0.8867 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9088 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9088. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9198. First support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1240.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1240.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1272.30. First support is the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1217.90. Second support is the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90.
September silver was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.691 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.691. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.207. First support is July's low crossing at 15.185. Second support is the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145.
September copper was lower overnight over renewed concerns that the Trump administration may be ready to place additional trade tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S.. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 286.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while renewing the rally off July's low. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 298.55. First support is July's low crossing at 267.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.74 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 5.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.84 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 5.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.49 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 9 1/2-cents at 5.84 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.97 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.32 would confirms that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.91. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.97 3/4. First support is 10-day moving average crossing at 5.48 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.32.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.95 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.57. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 329.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 343.70. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60. First support is the July 26th gap crossing at 329.40. Second support is July's low crossing at 321.50.
December soybean oil was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.29. First support is July's low crossing at 29.78. Second support is the August-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 25.47.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.50 at $50.73.
October hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.74. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.10. First support is today's low crossing at 50.12. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.
October cattle closed down $0.50 at 109.50.
October cattle close lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 111.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50.
August Feeder cattle closed down $2.18 at $149.33.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.70 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 154.93. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.70. Second support is July's low crossing at 147.82.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Tuesday while extending the decline off June's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 92.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.