KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 8, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 232.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -9.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 184.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -10.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 466.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.1%)
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 452.688M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.14M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.598M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.576M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 117.59M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.32M)
Refinery Usage (previous 85.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.106M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.659M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
Thursday, February 9, 2023
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 190K; previous 183K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1655000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -11K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2583B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -151B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 10, 2023
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 65.1; previous 64.6)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 62.0)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.6)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's gains. Overnight trading set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,042.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 12,949.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,437.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,042.34.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4059.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4121.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4059.32.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close below the November-December uptrend line crossing at 128-29 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-08 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-08. Second resistance is the January 19th high crossing at 132-31. Third resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the January 10th low crossing at 127-30. Second support is the December 30th low crossing at 124-11.
March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close below the November-December uptrend line crossing at 113.155 has opened the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.233 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 116.000. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 116.080. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 113.055. Second support is the December 30th low crossing at 111.280.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Marchcrude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $70.56. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.65. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.66. First support is Monday's low crossing at $72.25. Second support is December's low crossing at $70.56.
March heating oil is was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1162 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.9928. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1162. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.6653. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401.
March unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5278 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $2.2439 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5278. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is January's low crossing at $2.2439. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $2.1299.
March natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.881 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.881. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.300. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.341. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.323 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $105.500. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.323. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $100.680. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229.
The March Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07331 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at $1.05290. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08683 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.10590. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07331. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2282 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1968. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.19. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $73.99.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077443 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 0.075590 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of January's low crossing at 0.074830. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077443. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.078470. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.075590. Second support is January's low crossing at 0.074830.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1868.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1926.50 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1926.50. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1868.10. Second support is the January 5th low crossing at $1846.10.
March silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.519 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.519. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $24.750. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $22.028. Second support the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177.
March copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1835 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9646 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1835. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.9930. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9646.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.71 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.71 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.65.
March wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $7.76 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing near $7.76 1/2. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it renewed the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the November 25th high crossing at $9.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.57 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.95 3/4. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $9.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.57 1/2. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at $8.03 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the December 30th high crossing at $9.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.13 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.32. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $9.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.13 1/2. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.85.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.94 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4. First resistance is January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is the June 9th -2022 high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.94 3/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off Monday's low, the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $478.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. Second resistance is the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $478.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $461.40.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.59 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.59. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.05. First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.38 at $83.10.
April hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish with that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 27th high crossing at $88.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.10. Second resistance is the January 27th high crossing at $88.33. First support is today's low crossing at $81.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15.
April cattle closed down $0.93 at $163.55.
April cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $164.60. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $162.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.68.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.60 at $187.10.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $188.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $188.58. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $188.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.02. Second support is February's low crossing at $182.70.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $18.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $17.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.45.
March cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 25.07.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the November-February trading range. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.89 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 16th high crossing at 89.92 would mark an upside breakout of the November-February trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.37. If March extends Monday's decline, January's low crossing at 80.37 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!