KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 255.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +7.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 205.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 502.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +14.6%)
8:15 AM ET. January ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +235000)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refundingannouncement
9:45 AM ET. January US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 46.2)
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 48.4)
Prices Idx (previous 39.4)
Employment Idx (previous 51.4)
Inventories (previous 51.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 45.2)
Production Idx (previous 48.5)
10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.2%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. December Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. December Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 448.548M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.533M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.022M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.763M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.27M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.507M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.447M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.867M)
11:00 AM ET. January Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 48.6)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 4.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 4.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 12)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 4.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.50)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
4:00 PM ET. January Domestic Auto Industry Sales
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow erased all of Monday's decline and then some on Tuesday as it remains poised to extend the rally off the January 20th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off the January 20th low, January's high crossing at 34,342.32 is the next upside target. If the Dow renews the decline off January's high, the December 22nd low crossing at 32,573.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. Second resistance is the December 13th high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the January 5th low crossing at 32,812.33. Second support is the December 22nd low crossing at 32,573.43.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as Monday's decline was nothing more that a minor correction of the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,624.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,506.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 12,278.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,624.66. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,863.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,506.73.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it erased some of Monday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3977.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4103.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4021.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3977.86.
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March T-bonds closed up 12-pts. at 130-05.
March T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 19th high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-26.
March T-notes closed up 115-pts. at 114.210.
March T-notes closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.314 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 116.235 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.080. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 116.235. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.314. Second support is the December 30th low crossing at 111.280.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closed below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early-February.If March extends today's decline, the December-January uptrend line crossing near $74.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $80.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at $83.14 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $83.14. Second resistance is the November 14th high crossing at $87.00. First support is today's low crossing at $76.55. Second support is the January 5thlow crossing at $72.74.
March heating oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December-January uptrend line crossing near $2.9957 would signal that the intermediate-term trend has turned down. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2530 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2530. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.4664. First support is today's low crossing at $3.0068. Second support is the December-January uptrend line crossing at $2.9957.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4912 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at $2.7856 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at $2.7856. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4912. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3650.
March Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 2.473 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.192 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.192. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.535. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.612. Second support is theMarch-2020 low crossing at 2.473.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Tuesday while extending January's range above the 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.331. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.364 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.364. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.762. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.331. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229.
The March Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08240 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the March 31st -2022 high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1.09625. Second resistance is the March 31st -2022 high crossing at $1.09680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08240. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06843.
The March British Pound closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2190 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the January 6th low crossing at 1.1867. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2266. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2190.
The March Swiss Franc posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Tuesday while extending the December-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08264 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08264. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar posted an upside reversal and closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 75.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 75.21. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.20. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 73.99.
The March Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 18th low crossing at 0.076550 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the May 24th -2021 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 17th high crossing at 0.079190. Second resistance is the May 24th -2021 high crossing at 0.080525. First support is the January 18th low crossing at 0.076550. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 0.074830.
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April gold closed higher on Tuesday as it bounced off support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at $1919.20. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1919.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1966.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1919.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1853.40.
March silver closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends the December-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.270 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.995 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.938. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.270. Second support is the December 12th low crossing at 22.735.
March copper closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1264 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1264. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9104.
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March Corn closed down $0.04-cents at $6.79 3/4.
March corn closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off the January 23rd low upon failure to clear resistance marked by the early-January high crossing at $6.88 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $6.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4.
March wheat closed up $0.08 3/4-cents at $7.61 1/4.
March wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.61 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. If March renews this month's decline, the September 6th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.61 1/2. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is January's low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.05-cents at $8.78 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the December 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the January 10th 2022 low crossing at $7.68 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.83 1/2. Second resistance is the December 27 high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.11. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at $8.03 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.00 3/4-cents crossing at $9.22 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $9.28. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at $8.85. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4.
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March soybeans closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $15.38.
March soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off the January 25th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally. last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off the January 18th high, January's low crossing at $14.65 is the next downside target.First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.84 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $4.50 at $484.40.
March soybean meal posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's gains. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, the March-21st-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $494.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $472.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $490.30. Second resistance is the March-21st-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $494.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $472.30. Second support is January's low crossing at $452.80.
March soybean oil closed up 101-pts. At 62.22.
March soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving a crossing at 62.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off the December 27th high, December's low crossing at 58.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 59.90. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50.
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April hogs closed down $0.38 at $86.15.
April hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at $82.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.89. Second resistance is the January 17 high crossing at $89.08. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $83.70. Second support is October's low crossing at $82.63.
April cattle closed down $0.40 at $162.95.
April cattle closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $160.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $163.58. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $160.29. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $158.55.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.85 at $185.78.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $187.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $182.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 10th high crossing at $187.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $188.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $182.95. Second support is January's low crossing at $179.18.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $18.28. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.92. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.93. Second support is the January 11th low crossing at $14.21.
March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday following yesterday's key reversal down and closed lower. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the January 17th high crossing at 26.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed high on Tuesday and posted a new contract high as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it extends the November-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.31 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!