KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (previous +1.2%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
9:00 AM ET. November U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +8.0%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +8.6%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +9.2%)
9:45 AM ET. January Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey -
Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 44.9)
10:00 AM ET. January Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 108.3)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx (previous 147.2)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
3:00 PM ET. December Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +4.5%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.9M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 255.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +7.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 205.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 502.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +14.6%)
8:15 AM ET. January ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +235000)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement
9:45 AM ET. January US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 46.2)
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 48.4)
Prices Idx (previous 39.4)
Employment Idx (previous 51.4)
Inventories (previous 51.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 45.2)
Production Idx (previous 48.5)
10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.2%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. December Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. December Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 448.548M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.533M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.022M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.763M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.27M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.507M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.447M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.867M)
11:00 AM ET. January Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 48.6)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 4.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 4.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 12)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 4.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.50)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
4:00 PM ET. January Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Thursday, February 2, 2023
7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -43%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +0.3%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +3.5%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 186K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1675000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +20K)
10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous -1.8%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.0%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2729B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -91B)
12:00 AM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, February 3, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +223K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.82)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.27%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.59%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +3K)
Private Payroll (previous +220K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.3%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. January US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 44.7)
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (previous 49.6)
Business Activity Idx (previous 54.7)
Prices Idx (previous 67.6)
Employment Idx (previous 49.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 45.2)
11:00 AM ET. January Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 48.1)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,550.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off this month's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,624.66. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,237.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,624.66. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,842.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,573.22.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3971.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4109.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4016.15. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline from the January 19th high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off the December 30th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 19th high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-26.
March T-notes were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.314 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off the December 30th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 118.112. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.314. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at 113.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Marchcrude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the November 14th high crossing at $87.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $83.14. Second resistance is the November 14th high crossing at $87.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.73. Second support is January's low crossing at $72.74.
March heating oil is was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December-January uptrend line crossing near $2.9976 would signal that the short-term trend has turned bearish. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2411 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0780. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1315. First support is the the December-January uptrend line crossing near $2.9976. Second support is January's low crossing at $2.8500.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4876 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-December-2022 decline crossing at $2.7856 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.5951. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4876. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3636.
March natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 2.473 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.187 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.187. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.533. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.612. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 2.473.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range above the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.329. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 18th high crossing at $102.655 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.380. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.768. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229.
The March Euro was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08227 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the May 31st 2022 high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1.09625. Second resistance is the May 31st 2022 high crossing at $1.09680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08227. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06838.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2190 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1971. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2266. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2190.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08240 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08240. Second support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $75.21. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.18. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $73.99.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 18th low crossing at 0.076550 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's, the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 17th high crossing at 0.079190. Second resistance is the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525. First support is the January 18th low crossing at 0.076550. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075473.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was sharply lower overnight and is testing support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at $1917.90. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1917.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1966.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1917.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1852.90.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the December-January trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.257 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.257. Second support the December 16th low crossing at $22.735.
March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1221 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the rally off the November 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1221. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9087.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight and sets the stage for lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the January 23rd low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $7.61. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off the December 27th high, the January 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.83 1/2. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support is the January 10th low crossing at $8.03 1/4. Second support is the January 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the January 23rd low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.19 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30th high crossing at $9.40. If March resumes the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.19 3/4. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $9.40. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.85. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.84 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 5th low crossing at $14.65. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.38. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.05 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.84.
March soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the January 23rd low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, the March-21st-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $494.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $472.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $490.30. Second resistance is the March-21st-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $494.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $472.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $451.10.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 58.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.66. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.32. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 60.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50.
Thanks tallpine!
Back to not enough rain in Argentina.......the last 6z GEFS total rains for 384 hours below
This was the last oz European ensemble below. Another -5 HDDs and huge warming trend in week 2.
