INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 26, 2023, 4:37 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, January 27, 2023 



8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +0.1%)

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +4.4%; previous +4.7%)



10:00 AM ET. December Pending Home Sales Index

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 73.9)

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous -4.0%)

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -37.8%)



10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 64.6; previous 59.7)

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 59.9)

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.4%)

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 59.4)



Monday, January 30, 2023 



10:30 AM ET. January Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous -18.8)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 9.7)



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off last-Friday's low, January's high crossing at 34,342.32 is the next upside target. If the Dow renews the decline off January's high, the December 22nd low crossing at 32,573.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. Second resistance is the December 13th high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the January 5th low crossing at 32,812.33. Second support is the December 22nd low crossing at 32,573.43.   



The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,237.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,384.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 12,075.00. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,237.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,564.83. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,384.09.   



The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3944.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4068.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3944.61. Second support is the December 22nd low crossing at 3788.50.        



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 16-pts. at 130-10. 



March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-16. 



March T-notes closed up 115-pts. at 114.250.



March T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.284 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 116.235 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 116.080. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 116.235. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.064. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.284. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at $83.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $82.66. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $83.14. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.08. Second support is the January 5thlow crossing at $72.74.  



March heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1437 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off the January 5th low, October's high crossing at $3.4793 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $3.4664. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $3.4793. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2604. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1437. 



March unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4695 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at $2.7856 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.7186. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at $2.7856. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.5932. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4695. 



March Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 2.473 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.398 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.398. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at 4.674. First support is today's low crossing at 2.680. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 2.473.



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends a three-week old trading range above the 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.331. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.635 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.635. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.015. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.331. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229. 



The March Euro closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the March 31st high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07988 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1.09625. Second resistance is the March 31st high crossing at $1.09680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07988. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06590. 



The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 1.2229 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2162 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the January 6th low crossing at 1.1867. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2479. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2162. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 1.1861. 

 

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08173 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08173. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 1.06915. 



The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 75.71 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 73.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 25thhigh crossing at 75.16. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is last-Thursday low crossing at 73.40. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at 73.04.



The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077077 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the May 24th -2021 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.079190. Second resistance is the May 24th -2021 high crossing at 0.080525. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077077. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 0.074830.    



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1903.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1966.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1939.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1903.60.



March silver closed slightly higher on Thursday while extending the December-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.995 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.161 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.938. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.161. Second support is the December 6th low crossing at 22.190.   



March copper closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0686 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.3550. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.2386. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0686  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed up $0.07 3/4-cents at $6.82 1/2. 



March corn closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.62 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $6.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.62 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $6.48 1/4.    



March wheat closed up $0.11 1/4-cents at $7.52 1/2.  



March wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.66 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the September 6th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.66 1/2. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.21 1/2-cents at $8.64 3/4.



March Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.67 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of the December 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4. If March renews the decline off December's high, the January 10th 2022 low crossing at $7.68 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.67 1/4. Second resistance is the December 27 high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at $8.03 1/4. Second support is the January 10th 2022 low crossing at $7.68 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.08 1/2-cents crossing at $9.18.



March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If March renews the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.23. Second resistance is the January 30th high crossing at $9.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.85. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4.

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed up $0.21-cents at $15.23 1/2.



March soybeans closed sharply higher on Thursday following yesterday's upside reversal signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally. last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, January's low crossing at $14.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.79 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $14.65.



March soybean meal closed up $11.60 at $477.10. 



March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, last-Wednesday's high crossing at $487.00 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2023-rally crossing at $446.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the August 29th high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $488.40 is the next upside target. First support is Monday's low crossing at $452.80. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2023 rally crossing at $446.10.



March soybean oil closed up 25-pts. At 60.79. 



March soybean oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the December 27th high, December's low crossing at 58.50 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 64.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.94. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.75. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 60.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $1.60 at $86.93. 



April hogs posted huge key reversal up as it closed higher on Thursday that a short-term low has likely been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, October's low crossing at $82.63 is the next downside target. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.20 signals that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.79. First support is today's low crossing at $83.70. Second support is October's low crossing at $82.63. 



April cattle closed down $1.03 at $160.53. 



April cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $157.566 is the next downside target. If April extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at $162.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $161.78. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $162.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.97. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $158.550.    



March Feeder cattle closed down $1.0 at $182.75. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the October 14th low crossing at $176.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.37. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $179.18. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $176.28.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at $17.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $16.78. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $17.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.65. Second support is the January 11th low crossing at $14.21. 



March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the January 17th high crossing at 26.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                 



March sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 21.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.    



March cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends the November-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.    

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 26, 2023, 8:10 p.m.
Like Reply

thanks tallpine!