KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 26, 2023
8:30 AM ET. December CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.8%; previous +3.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +3.4%; previous +4.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.8%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +4.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.7%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +2.9%; previous -2.1%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 199K; previous 190K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1647000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +17K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. December New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 615K; previous 640K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -3.9%; previous +5.8%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 8.6)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2820B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -82B)
11:00 AM ET. January Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -13)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 12)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -9)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 2)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 27, 2023
8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +4.4%; previous +4.7%)
10:00 AM ET. December Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 73.9)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous -4.0%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -37.8%)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 64.6; previous 59.7)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 59.9)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.4%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 59.4)
Monday, January 30, 2023
10:30 AM ET. January Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -18.8)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 9.7)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off this month's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,237.16. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,379.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 12,010.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,237.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,562.89. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,379.67.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3943.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4045.36. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3968.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3943.66.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off the December 30th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-16.
March T-notes were slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.285 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off the December 30th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 118.112. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.067. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.285.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Marchcrude oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at $83.14 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $82.66. Second resistance is the November 14th high crossing at $87.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.07. Second support is January's low crossing at $72.74.
March heating oil is was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1414 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at $3.4793 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $3.4664. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $3.4793. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.2556. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1414.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4687 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-December-2022 decline crossing at $2.7856 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.7186. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-December-2022 decline crossing at $2.7856. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.5913. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4687.
March natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 2.473 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.396 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.396. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at 4.674. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.753. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 2.473.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.632 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.632. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.014. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229.
The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the May 31st 2022 high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07993 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1.09625. Second resistance is the May 31st 2022 high crossing at $1.09680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07993. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06592.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 1.2477 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2161 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1971. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2477. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2161. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1971.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08179 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08179. Second support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $73.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at $75.10. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $73.99. Second support is the January's low crossing at $73.10.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077090 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's, the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.079190. Second resistance is the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077090. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 0.074830.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1903.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1966.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1940.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1903.90.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the December-January trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.156 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.156. Second support the December 16th low crossing at $22.735.
March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off the November 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0667 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4.3550. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.2348. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0667.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight and sets the stage for higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.62 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.62 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $6.48 1/4.
March wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $7.601 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $7.66 1/2. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.66 3/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off the December 27th high, the January 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.66 3/4. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support is the January 10th low crossing at $8.03 1/4. Second support is the January 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight and sets the stage for a fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.23. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $9.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.85. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight as they extends the rally off Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.12 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.79 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.12 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.79. Second support is the January 5th low crossing at $14.65.
March soybean meal was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $470.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $446.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $470.80. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $487.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at $452.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $446.00.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the December 27th high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 58.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.95. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 60.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.08 at $85.30.
April hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, October's low crossing at $82.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.34. Second resistance is the January 17th high crossing at $89.08. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $84.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $82.63.
April cattle closed up $0.13 at $161.43.
April cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at $162.75 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $157.566 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $161.78. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $162.75. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $157.566. Second support is the December 7th low crossing at $156.85.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.05 at $183.65.
March Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the October 14th low crossing at $176.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $179.18. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $176.28.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.21. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $17.50. First support is the January 11th low crossing at $14.21. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.20.
March cocoa closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December 16th low crossing at 24.68 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 20.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 19.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the November-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Rains are taken out of Argentina forecast?.........BULLISH beans
Good export sales this morning compared to recently
More supplies gush in for ng and only a brief cold snap, followed by very mild weather
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92520/