Gold, Silver, ETFs Elliott Wave: From A Cycle Degree Perspective.
3 responses | 3 likes
Started by bb@ew50 - July 31, 2018, 12:36 p.m.

I have dedicated my life to looking for and confirming all 5 waves in cycle degree first. I'm very bearish on gold and gold stocks, as what you see above with this gold daily chart is a bear market rally. Gold wavers have turned this rally into a bull market. The wave pattern since the 2011 peak is called a diagonal 5 waves which are all connected with Minor degree zigzags. The bearish rally you see contains a triangle in the Minor degree "B" wave position, which is an extreme clue that once this is completed, it forces my wave position into a one higher degree bottom.  This will be an "A" wave in Primary degree.

The Death Cross that investors ignore or know little about has already happened with this daily chart, and is about to happen on the weekly charts as well. Gold investors think that gold was just in a correction in an ongoing bull market. They don't realize that the gold peak in 2011 was a 30-year gold and silver bubble peak, and by this fall will only be 1/3 of the way. 

The setup is identical to the 2008 peak when "all" asset classes crashed together, except for the US dollar which exploded during the same time period. I was trading futures at that time and managed to catch the rally before it exploded. Of course, keeping this windfall was another story as I gave it all back trying to be a macho futures trader. 

ETFs are my specialty and I use GDX as one of my main ETFs. All my GDX moves are tested with real money continuously, as I have no guilt hang-ups in shorting GDX when the position is right. I have been short GDX with 500 shares since the $21.92 price level and have no intention of changing my positions until all support for gold is erased.  

 If you like to see this thread continue, then please click the "like" button. I will answer any basic questions but will accept no wave position criticism from any wave analyst that has "not" been certified by EWI! 

The entire gold investing universe is focused on two gold prices levels. The gold bulls need a break out above $1400 and the gold bears need gold to break down below $1047. One dime below this number and I win a 10-ounce pure silver coin, but if gold crosses $1400 by any amount, then I lose a 10-ounce coin. Once this last support is taken out, I assure you my 3-hour gold long range consulting fees will explode!  

This may be a longer opening ramble, but I'm looking for like-minded individuals with a trading mentality, not an investor mentality. They are two different worlds and should never be called the same thing. Commodities don't end with a soft bottom, like the $1050 price, they end with violent moves that will boggle the imagination when they are completing. A gold crash below $800 is going to happen, as $700- $800 gold, has always been the real support price level.  Massive deflation is the real threat, not inflation as all assets classes are going to suffer price declines, with real estate being in one of the biggest inflated bubbles in history, real estate prices will suffer massive declines, which is deflation. 



Comments
By Richard - July 31, 2018, 1:38 p.m.
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I had a target of $72 for oil this year and we clearly hit that. Looking out into 2026, we will have massive inflation. It is possible that we have deflation for the next 24 months. I am not saying we will, but understand what you are saying and the potential for one last Hurrah for the US$$. After the summer of 2020, forget it. No more new lows for anything, but 24 months in a very long time in futures, and I wish you luck.

By cutworm - Aug. 1, 2018, 12:33 a.m.
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Thank you  bb@ew50 for your analysis

I have long held that the 2011 high was a long term cycle  high. 

I am not a  wave analyst.

But history is that major highs in gold  are not breached for decades.

Anyone that can look at a chart should be able to see the down trend since April.

I don't know what the bottom price will be. I will let the charts tell the story after it happens.

The way to trade is to sell rallies 

JMHO 


By Lacey - Aug. 1, 2018, 9:01 a.m.
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Agree, gold heading to 800 or lower.