INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 11, 2023, 7:38 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, January 11, 2023  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W%

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%

 

                       Refinance Idx

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

  N/A               EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)  Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Refinery Usage

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied,  (Bbl/day) Net Chg

 



 

 

Thursday, January 12, 2023   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

8:30 AM ET. December CPI

 

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.6%)

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +7.1%)

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +6.0%)

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 204K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1694000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -24K)

 

8:30 AM ET. December Real Earnings

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2891B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -221B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 

12:00 PM ET. World Social Report launch

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, January 13, 2023  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes

 

                       Import Prices (previous -0.6%)

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -3.3%)

 

10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 59.1)

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 58.4)

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 60.2)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the  rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight tradingsets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,478.34 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 10,595.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,478.34. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 11,849.67. First support is November's low crossing at 10,746.75. Second support is October's low crossing at 10,595.25.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3941.91 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 3735.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3941.91. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4155.39. First support is the November 9th low crossing at 3782.75. Second support is November's low crossing at 3735.00. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the December 30th low, December's high crossing at 132-15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 130-01. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 132-15. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 124-31. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 123-06.  



March T-notes were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the December 30th low, December's high crossing at 115.115 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.020 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 114.235. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 115.115. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.020. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 112.087. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Februarycrude oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 3rd high crossing at $81.50 would renew the rally off December's low. If February renews last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $70.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.27. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $72.46. Second support is December's low crossing at $70.31.  



February heating oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1921 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $2.7517 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1921. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1921. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.9200. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.7517.    



February unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the November 14th high crossing at $2.5783 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $2.2356 would renew the decline off December's high. First resistance is December's high crossing at $2.5233. Second resistance is the November 14th high crossing at $2.5783. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $2.2356. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $2.1157.  



February natural gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the March-2022 low crossing at 2.598 is the next downside target, Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.880 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.057. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.880. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.491. Second support is the March-2022 low crossing at 2.598.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $105.500 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $105.500. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.583. First support is Monday's low crossing at $102.680. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331.



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the March 31st high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05014 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during January. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.08062. Second resistance is the March 31st high crossing at $1.09680. First support is the December 7th low crossing at $1.05210. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05014.  



The March British Pound was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Friday's low, December's high crossing at 1.2477 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1861 would renew the decline off December's high while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1697. First resistance is Monday's high  crossing at 1.2229. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2477. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1861. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1697.    



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.06930 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during January. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.09845. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.06930. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.06915. 

 

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $74.91. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the December 20th low crossing at $73.04. Second support is November low crossing at $72.58.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally last-Friday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 0.074830 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's, the August high crossing at 0.078135 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.077935. Second resistance is the August high crossing at 0.078135. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.074830. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073599.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1915.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1831.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1890.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1915.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1831.40. Second support is the December 15th low crossing at $1782.00.



March silver was higher overnight as it extends the December-January trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $23.260 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support last-Thursday's low crossing at $23.260. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $22.735.    



March copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the January 4th low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the November 28th low, the 62% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.2424 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8484 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.1285. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.2424. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8484. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7568.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the December 19th low crossing at $6.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $6.85. First support is is the December 19th low crossing at $6.44. Second support is December's low crossing at $6.35.  



March wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off the January 3rd high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.90 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $7.90 1/2. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $8.20 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.24 1/4. Second support is the September 6th2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.  



March Kansas City wheat was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the January 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.53 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.53. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.88. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $8.03 1/4. Second support is theJanuary 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80.



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.15 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.15 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.34 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.90. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $15.01 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off this month's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $14.54 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's low, December's high crossing at $15.37 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $15.37 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $14.65. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $14.54 1/4.

 

March soybean meal was a higher overnight following a two-day correction off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the August 29th high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $488.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $459.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $479.00. Second resistance is the August 29th high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $488.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $459.40. Second support is the December 19th low crossing at $443.40. 



March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last-week's decline, the December 16th low crossing at 61.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.48 confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.48. Second resistance is broken support crossing at 67.52. First support is the December 16th low crossing at 61.47. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50.    


Comments
By metmike - Jan. 11, 2023, 9:59 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

NG had a blip higher overnight from colder models.


Rain taken out of the forecast for Argentina and big cuts to their crop coming tomorrow-USDA.