INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 22, 2022, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, November 22, 2022    

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +7.2%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 

                       Mfg Idx (expected -8; previous -10)

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous -3)

 



 

 

1:00 AM ET. October Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.8M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, November 23, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 205.2)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.7%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 169.7)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.4%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 367.1)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.6%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October Advance Report on Durable Goods

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.7%)

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

 

                        

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 222K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg. (previous -4K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1507000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 50.0; previous 49.9)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 48.0; previous 46.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October New Residential Sales

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 572K; previous 603K)

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -5.1%; previous -10.9%)

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 9.2)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 55.1; previous 59.9)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 56.2)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.0%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 65.6)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 435.355M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.4M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 207.94M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.207M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 107.383M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.12M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 92.9%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.087M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.18M)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3644B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +64B)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

 



 

 

Thursday, November 24, 2022  

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S.: Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets closed

 



 

 

Friday, November 25, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early after Thanksgiving

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight tradingsets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,399.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,547.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,150.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,547.94. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,399.69. Second support is the November 10th low crossing at 10,808.00.



The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3887.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off the October 13th low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 4024.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3887.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3799.06. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 128-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 126-27. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 128-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-16.



December T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.134 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 113.300 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 113.300. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.142. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.134. Second support is November's low crossing at 109.105. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Januarycrude oil was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline November's high, September's low crossing at $74.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $84.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.89. First support is Monday's low crossing at $75.27. Second support is September's low crossing at $74.96.



January heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5066 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $3.2323 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.4370. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5066. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $3.2323.  



January unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5004 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at $2.1536 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.4477. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5004. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.2538. Second support is September's low crossing at $2.1536.



January natural gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, November's high crossing at 7.501 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.563 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 7.501. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 7.910. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.535. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 6.132.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.996 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.996. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.673. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $105.155. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650.



The December Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.01446 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at $1.07137 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1.05085. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.07137. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.01446. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $0.99840.   



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1648 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.2041. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1648. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1395.    



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03081 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.07275. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03081. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02478.

 

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $77.18 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 20th crossing at $75.62. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $77.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.77.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069796 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's, the August 23rd high crossing at 1.074410 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.072925. Second resistance is the August 23rd high high crossing at 1.074410. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069796. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.067550. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1824.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1709.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1791.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1824.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1709.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1688.30.



December silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.  If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.466 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.656 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $22.380. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.656. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at $19.830.   



December copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.7326 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.7326. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3.9600. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5070. Second support is the October 31st low crossing at 3.3615.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past nine-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.83 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off the October 31st high, the August 18th low crossing at $6.11 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.83 3/4. Second resistance is the October 31st high crossing at $7.04 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.11 1/2. 



March wheat was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at $7.60 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.75 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.04 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at $7.60 1/4.   



March Kansas City wheat was steady overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks and sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $9.11 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.23 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.87 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.23 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $9.11 1/2. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.95 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was steady overnight as it extends the July-November trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.15 is the next downside target. Closes above November's high crossing at $10.02 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at $10.02 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $10.29 1/2. First support is the November 10th low crossing at $9.41 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.15. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 is the next upside target. If January renews last-week's decline, the October 26th low crossing at $13.80 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $14.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $14.06 3/4. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $13.80 1/2.  

 

January soybean meal was lower overnight and the low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $409.00 would temper the bearish outlook. If January renews the decline off October's high, the October 19th low crossing at $395.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $409.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $430.00. First support is the October 19th low crossing at $395.00. Second support is the October 6th low crossing at $391.10.    



January soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 78.78 is the next upside target. If January extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 75.94. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 78.78. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.64. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 62.40.  


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed down $0.30 at $83.93. 



December hogs closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.49 confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $91.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $87.58. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $89.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.49. Second support is the October 9th low crossing at $81.35. 



December cattle closed up $0.43 at $153.50. 



December cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $150.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $154.20. Second resistance is the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $150.51. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $146.90. 



January Feeder cattle closed up $1.75 at $182.53. 



January Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $176.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $181.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $182.38. Second support is October's low crossing at $172.10.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.90 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $18.34. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.04.                   



December cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the October 26th low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.87 would signal that a low has been posted.     



March sugar closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, April's high crossing at 20.63 is the next upside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.58 signals that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 97.77 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 22, 2022, 1:44 p.m.
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Thanks tallpine!

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