Natural Gas Sunday/Monday
12 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - July 29, 2018, 5:53 p.m.

For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9102/

Monday am update: The forecast is warmer

Comments
By metmike - July 29, 2018, 5:55 p.m.
Like Reply

Closing comments Friday from Natural Gas Intelligence:

      

August Natural Gas Rallies into Expiry on Storage, Heat

   

The front month natural gas futures contract rallied ahead of expiration Friday, with potential August heat and a tight storage picture offering support in a market still heavily weighed down by production. In the spot market, most regions posted discounts on three-day deals, including in the sweltering California and Desert Southwest; the NGI National Spot Gas Average dropped 21 cents to $2.70/MMBtu

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 5:56 p.m.
Like Reply

Storage is LOW for this time of year!!

Storage is at the bottom of the 5 year average:

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 5:57 p.m.
Like Reply

From last Thursday:

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report       +22BCF---bullish!

       

Big drawdown in SouthCentral from the intense heat in TX last week.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(07/20/17)
5-year average
(2013-17) 
Region07/20/1807/13/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East527  507  20  20   624  -15.5  630  -16.3  
Midwest524  501  23  23   742  -29.4  686  -23.6  
Mountain145  144  1  1   197  -26.4  174  -16.7  
Pacific257  259  -2  -2   294  -12.6  311  -17.4  
South Central820  838  -18  -18   1,122  -26.9  1,028  -20.2  
   Salt214  230  -16  -16   310  -31.0  286  -25.2  
   Nonsalt606  608  -2  -2   813  -25.5  741  -18.2  
Total2,273  2,249  24  24   2,978  -23.7  2,830  -19.7  


By metmike - July 29, 2018, 5:57 p.m.
Like Reply

These were the temperatures for the 7 day period which passed for that EIA ng storage report:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180720.7day.mean.F.gif


These were the temperatures for the last 7 day period for this next EIA report.......much cooler, especially Midwest(N/C Plains were coolest but not many people live there-so not as much residential cooling demand in Summer)... so a much bigger injection coming up this Thursday:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180727.7day.mean.F.gif

By hayman - July 29, 2018, 5:59 p.m.
Like Reply

September Natty WEEKLY

Green Hulk up candle last week, oscillators curling up, teasing...  A trip up to the top of the range for starters.  Guessing a gap up in a couple minutes.

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 6:13 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks hayman,

I thought we might gap up on the open too. Instead, we opened close to where the last price was on Friday( just above the actual 1:30pm close)

In early trading NGU is 2788 +6

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 6:26 p.m.
Like Reply

NGU making new lows at 2.780 just above what may be  major support from Friday's breakout above Thursday highs(2.779). 

Update 5:55pm, lows/support held, back near the highs from earlier which were 2.797?

Fridays highs were also 2.797.


By metmike - July 29, 2018, 6:32 p.m.
Like Reply

Rig count from Friday..........not much change for natural gas -1.

http://www.wtrg.com/rotaryrigs.html

By silverspiker - July 29, 2018, 9:39 p.m.
Like Reply

... looks like clear sailing to the upside in U-September Nattie

... 3-84 & then 3-87.7


By metmike - July 30, 2018, 12:35 a.m.
Like Reply

SS,

We have been sitting on/near the highs from Friday for the past couple of hours..............waiting for the next run of the models to come out.

Hotter and we can keep going higher, above 2.8 and to the levels that you showed.

If maps turn decidedly cooler, this level of resistance can stop the rally that started from the low last Monday Night, when we hit the huge support at 2.685

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
Like Reply

From Natural Gas Intelligence this morning:

Forecasts for Sustained Heat Supportive as September Natural Gas Called Near Even

     

The September natural gas futures contract was set to open Monday near even at around $2.782/MMBtu as forecasts over the weekend remained hot for the second week of August.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9102/


The weather is warmer than Friday!

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 6:47 p.m.
Like Reply

From: Natural Gas Intelligence:

      

Natural Gas Futures Build on Last Week’s Strong Finish as August Forecast Seen Hotter

     5:57 PM    

Natural gas futures inched higher Monday, bolstered by a hotter-trending forecast for August and a tight storage picture. In the spot market, less intense heat in Southern California saw SoCal Citygate walk back from last week’s record-setting highs as the region continued to trade at a premium; the NGI National Spot Gas Average tacked on 3 cents to $2.73/MMBtu.