Very Happy July 29th!
Scroll down and really enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.
Rains in different places at different times......but not everywhere.
When you add it all up, it amounts to decent rain for this time of year in around half of the belt..........but definately not as much as yesterday's forecast!
The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Excessive Rainfall threat Central/Southern Plains and points east....shifting southeast, then shifting northeast early next week.............see the maps below:
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen. Today: Highest threat Central High Plains today.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
High Temperatures today and Monday....... feels like Fall in the N/C.Plains/Midwest. Hot deep South/Gulf Coast. Heating up a bit far S.Plains today.
Blast furnace in the Southwest..........even Pacific Northwest feels the heat(records)!!!
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Very Comfortable air N/C Plains/ Midwest to East Coast!
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.
Highs days 3-7.
Magnificent start Central Plains to Midwest......gradually heating back up during this period.
Still hot West .........but cooling along the coasts!!!!!
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year? We have now past the the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.
Starting below average but ending above average =average in the Plains to Midwest.
Heat in the West shifts a bit east.
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Cool Canadian high pressure Plains to Midwest to East Coast. Warm front S.Plains setting off t-shwrs there to S.Midwest.
Rains the past 24 hours. S.Plains to Arkansas......very welcome rains.
Missouri/Arkansas to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(this is why they were/are singing in the rains there).
Recent drying has extended into S.IA/IL/IN/OH. Watching to see how much of that area gets upcoming rains..........IA could miss.
NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
See how dry it's been in the Central Cornbelt for over a week and some negative departures for 14 and 30 days over the southern and eastern belt.:
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Central IL. possible flooding today
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: Cool in N/C Plains and Midwest.............. heat backed up West.
In 5+ days:
Heat West moves east to Plains. Below average temperatures shift to Southeast.
In 10+ days Hot West. Heat spills across the entire country? Temps uncertain in East.
Day 15 Hot West.............Heat IS moving around. Temps uncertain in the East
Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. Still..........The same question of the last 12 days for this period. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast be in week 2? Will this mark a pattern change?
Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward? Will this nudge the trough northward?
Around half of the members have this idea.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC
You want uncertainty late week 2? I'll give you uncertainty.
The last 6Z operational GFS model shows a huge heat ridge late in week 2 with near record heat for the eastern half of the country but the previous 0z run, shown at the bottom showed the complete opposite..........an upper level trough and strong cooling about to hit.
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
Previous GFS below
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............looks drastically different again today.
This is what I stated yesterday:
"Early/mid last week it looked hot............then turned very cool, especially yesterday(and dry yesterday)........now its looking warmer and wet."
On Sunday, it looks cooler in the Plains to Midwest(heat back out West) and Wet in the Plains to Midwest.
Precip below:
Good points, Mike, about the often big jumps from day to day on the CFS weeks 3-4 and from just one run to the next on the operational GFS 360 hour maps. That along with various model biases that intensify fruther out in forecast time are reasons why we both know that they’re so unreliable/pretty low skill and significant changes on these don’t normally influence the markets nearly as much as significant changes on the operational/ensemble means through early week 2 and the ensemble means late in week 2 though admittedly for awhile the CFS had been somewhat consistent from one run to the next on cooling in the Midwest/Plains vs earlier heat in these areas.
By the way, I’m seeing some hints on the more reliable model consensus that there may finally be a change back to warmer in the Midwest and NE in week 2.
Agree Larry,
The last 12Z GFS operational model looks pretty warm......and not as wet as some previous solutions.
gfs_namer_348_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_348_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_348_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_348_850_temp_ht |
Total Rains thru 348 hours.