I know that I was very early yet again, but that does not change the fact that what I see at this time is a swift and major move up in gold starting this week and going into the end of next week. In this 2 week period we could move up to $1280. What happens after that I am not sure yet. Reasons for this:
1) extreme pessimism. OMG everyone is talking about sub $1200 gold and the traders are in total shock from being bounded from this decline.
2)extreme readings in the Commitment of traders report. The only people short are the small traders.
3) the first two weeks of August are seasonally very strong.
4) technically the charts look positive with extreme readings on RSI and if we break 1235 we would have bullish divergences in daily RSI.
Gold Charts
Gold 3 months:
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Gold 1 year below
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Recent posts on gold:
By cutworm - July 22, 2018, 10:06 p.m.
You will see 1200 gold before you see 1260 gold. Gold is in a long term down trend and short term reaction. Richard keep those stops in and you will have a good short term trade! But this is just a bounce in a down trend.be looking to go short soon. Strong $ weak gold.
JMHO
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By bb@ew50 - July 27, 2018, 3:52 a.m.
I agree with you, that gold is in a long-term downtrend and we will see gold $1047 before gold $1260.
The question is simple, is gold just in a bear market rally or still in a bull market? It's easy to test as I do it all the time. Short sell GDX with 100 shares and see if it stays green for longer than it stays in the red. I have a 500 share short position on GDX and the entire trade has been in the green already.
Everybody on the planet is watching the $1400 price level, and that so-called $1050 support price. Only one can win and when gold crosses below $1047, I win a 10 Troy ounce, pure silver coin.
Now here is a really "Big" gold coin, with $1 million CAD face value. Convert this to Troy ounces and see if it's going up or down in price.
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By Richard - July 27, 2018, 6:11 a.m.
We may see $1050 but if we do, Gold has only 24 months to get there. After that the dollar is doomed, but talking about 24 months from now when trading commodities is ridiculous.
I just realized that the FOMC meets this week on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking back at my data, GOLD has NEVER staged a major rally of any type starting one or two days before an FOMC meeting but turning points have in the past been ON the FOMC meeting conclusion day. Meaning this, Gold is not going to start a major rally Monday or Tuesday. If it is going to rally, if at all, it will do so starting Wednesday. No matter what happens, the next move, whether up or down should begin later this week. I think it is up, but only time will tell. Additionally with Monday being the last trading day of August Gold, Monday should be a rather dull trading day as the traders move focus on rolling out of August. The only exception to this would be if the last remaining longs in August gold get out instead of rolling over. Gold is down $3 now, with indicators like the ones we have, that surprises me. With the 4 largest traders having the smallest short position in the 18 1/2 years of data that I have, to start a sub $1200 move now would be shocking. And when I talk about the COT report for the 4 largest traders, that is for BOTH reports, futures only AND futures and options.
When I posted this thread, I did not realize we had a FOMC meeting this week. I have a spread sheet with the high low and close of gold going back 25years, and looked the first week of August going back 10 years just now, and when we have a FOMC meeting towards the end of july beginning of August, we almost always have a SPIKE low on the Tuesday of the week of the meeting, before a major move higher. I am sure we will have one tomorrow before the big move higher which I am looking for. This low could be down to 1216/7 which is normal within the daily chart but I can not rule out a move all the way down to $1200. If we do go to $1200, we could come back awfully fast. If nothing else, Gold is going to MOVE this week. If we do go down to $1200, it would not stop it from a major advance above $1250 rather quickly either.
You have the most vivid imagination concerning gold. Please, even if all the Martians were buying it, doesn'/t matter, Sir. In Trump World, gold is not needed. Anyone gets out of line will immediately get a bloody nose. And as we know from Mike Tyson, "Everyone's got a plan, until they get a real hard punch in the mouth!" Stop getting hit, Ritchie. Search for the sure setup, in whatever commodity it may be. Don't marry the ho, trade her, to paraphrase a famous trading wizard. You admitted to never trading anything yoiu could eat. Well, take a look at that wheat or those hogs. Time for some pancakes and bacon, man. And start drinking a bit more seriously to loosen your inhibitions. Screw gold, Trump has made it obsolete. For dang suyre, you don't want to end up like that Vandy man and his umpteen wagons full of of platinum!<#@>!
" extreme readings in the Commitment of traders report. The only people short are the small traders. "
Richard, Price Action is a great predictor of next week's COT. Unfortunately, you can't make money that way.