KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.446M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -9.6%)
Building Permits (previous 1.674M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -1.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +11.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +11.4%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
N/A U.N. General Debate opens
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 30,255.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,840.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,840.66. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 32,504.04. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 30,550.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 30,255.18.
The December NASDAQ 100 close higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,469.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's crossing at 12,987.00. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 13,296.25. First support is is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4060.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4060.61. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4175.00. First support is today's low crossing at 3846.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16.
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December T-bonds closed down 10-pts. at 131-27.
December T-bonds closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134-04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132-06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134-04. First support is today's low crossing at 130-05. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
December T-notes closed down 130-pts. at 114.110.
December T-notes closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 114.060 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.078 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.078. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.044. First support is today's low crossing at 114.070. Second support is June's low crossing at 114.060.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $75.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.75. First support is the September 8th lowcrossing at $81.20. Second support is the February 18th lowcrossing at $79.83.
October heating oil closed higher on Monday ending a four-day decline off last-Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.7707 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 3.7050 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3.7050. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0392. First support is August's low crossing at 3.1167. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.7707.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.2446 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5097 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5097. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.6704. First support is the September 8th low crossing at 2.2890. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.2446.
October Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.133 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.687 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 9.238. Second resistance is the August 29th high crossing at 9.711. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 7.685. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 7.133.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.384 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 7th high crossing at $110.480. Second resistance is monthly resistancecrossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.384. Second support is August's low crossing at $104.150.
The December Euro closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01904 is needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01904. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.04650. First support is the September 6th low crossing at $0.99350. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.1340 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1900. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1374. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1340.
The December Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04168 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.06325. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04168. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.02210.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday ending a four-day decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 74.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.32. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.18. First support is today's low crossing at 74.95. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 74.06.
The December Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071789 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071789. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.73552. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.069485. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
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December gold closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1751.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1751.00. Second resistance August's high crossing at $1824.60. First support is last-Friday'sw low crossing at $1661.90. Second support is monthly support crossing at $1610.30.
December silver closed higher on Monday as it extended last-week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the August high crossing at 21.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.794 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 21.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.794. Second support is the September 1st low crossing at 17.320.
December copper closed slightly higher on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1315 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0590. First support the September 6th low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1315.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.01-cent at $6.78 1/4.
December corn closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32.
December wheat closed down $0.29 1/4-cents at $8.30 1/2.
December wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.17 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $8.84 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First support is the September 1st low crossing at $7.91 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $7.43 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.25 1/2-cents at $9.09 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.58. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is September's low crossing at $8.65. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.08 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.20 1/2-cents at $9.18 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends the July-September trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would mark an upside breakout of the July-September trading range and would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the September 7th low crossing at $8.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is August's low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.12 3/4-cents at $14.61 1/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.35 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.35 3/4. Second support is the September 8th low crossing at $13.73.
December soybean meal closed up $7.60 at $429.30.
December soybean meal closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $419.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $440.70. Second resistance is long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $419.50. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at $410.20.
December soybean oil closed down 80-pts. at 65.16.
December soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 12th high crossing at 68.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is September's low crossing at 61.24. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at 55.53.
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October hogs closed down $0.58 at $96.32.
October hogs closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $101.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.87 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $97.05. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $101.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.87. Second support is September's low crossing at $89.12.
October cattle closed up $0.23 at $145.73.
October cattle closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, April's high crossing at $147.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.44 would confirm that a double top with August's high has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $146.25. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $147.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143440. Second support is the July 29th low crossing at $141.43.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.88 at $182.13.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the July low crossing at $176.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 6th high crossing at $187.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $190.20. First support is July's low crossing at $176.25. Second support is the June 13th low crossing at $173.60.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the August 19th low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $22.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.76. First support is the August 19th low crossing at $20.95. Second support is August's low crossing at 20.28.
December cocoa closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renewed the decline off August's high, the July 14th low crossing at 22.80 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 19th low crossing at 17.61 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 17.20. Closes above the August 15th high crossing at 18.70 would mark an upside breakout of the August-September trading range.
December cotton closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 91.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.48 would signal that a low has been posted.
Thanks a bunch tallpine!