Happy July 27th!
Scroll down and really enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.
Turning wet C/S.Plains, rains march east. The next week will be wet in many places(some that need rain badly) in the Southern, then Eastern Midwest.........not as much in the N.Plains/ Upper Midwest.
The latest forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Excessive Rainfall threat Central/Southern Plains.
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen. A couple of hot spots.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
High Temperatures today and Saturday....... feels like Fall in the N/C.Plains/Midwest. Hot deep South.
Blast furnace in the Southwest!!!
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Very Comfortable air N/C Plains/ Midwest!
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.
Highs days 3-7.
Magnificent Central Plains to Midwet....some warming late week 1.
Record smashing Heat West!!!!!
How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Below average in the Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.
Record heat in the West and this is just after the hottest time of year!!
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Cool dry Canadian high pressure Plains to Midwest. Active front Northeast to Midatlantic to Southeast to S.Plains.
Rains the past 24 hours. All over the place.
Missouri/Arkansas to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(big relief KS/MO/AR coming)
NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days:
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: New strong cool surge in N/C Plains and Midwest.............. heat backed up West.
In 5+ days:
Hot West!! Below average temperatures Midwest to South.
In 10+ days Hot West!!!! Some heat spills east to northeast.
Day 15 Hot West to N.Plains.............Heat IS shifting and moving east.
Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. Same question of the last week. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?
Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward? Will this nudge the trough northward?
Around half of the members have this idea.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............looks drastically different than earlier this week!
Big heat ridge builds back up West! Strong cooling Plains and eastward.
Dry and cool northwest flow N.Plains/Midwest.
Precip below:
Last GFS 6Z operational model is bullish with heat ridge............many ensembles disagree.
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
0Z GFS ensembles. Ensembles are like versions of the operational model with a slight tweeking of different parameters/mathematical equations. No model has all the perfect set of equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere.
This last operational 12z GFS, like the previous one is bullish with the heat ridge during week 2 over the eastern half of the country...including the entire Midwest:
gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht |
Majority of just updated 12z Canadian ensembles do NOT have this bullish solution. Many of them have some upper level troughing from the Upper Midwest to Northeast.
The top map is the average of all of them together. The average is always more consistent than an individual operational model........but will be slow to pick up on pattern changes.
Individual Ensembles are like versions of the parent/operational model with a slight tweeking of different parameters/mathematical equations. No model has all the perfect set of equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere.
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 12, 2018 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
NWS extended forecast........below temperature anomalies continued to shrink in size and magnitude vs their previous outlooks all week.............now the above normal temperatures are growing in area and magnitude.
Bullish for natural gas and bad for corn filling.
Still wet in the East but dry in the Plains and southwest Cornbelt.
Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Extreme weather days 3-7:
Widespread heavy rains from the S.Plains eastward!
More heat in the West.
The just updated 18Z operational GFS model no longer has the big heat ridge in week 2 as it did for the previous 2 runs. Many of its ensembles were not confirming the heat ridge on the previous solutions and most of the Canadian model ensembles did not show the heat ridge as shown above.
Now the GFS shows an upper level trough in the Midwest. The map below is the day 14 map. There is a great deal of rain also.............which the exception of the far Northern Plains(ND).
Stay tuned.....................the week 2 part of the forecast is even more uncertain than usual.
gfs_namer_336_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_336_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_336_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_336_850_temp_ht |
2 week rains on the last 18Z GFS below:
2 w