Weather Friday
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Started by metmike - July 27, 2018, 9:52 a.m.

Happy July 27th!


 Scroll down and really enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.


Turning wet C/S.Plains, rains march east.  The next week will be wet in many places(some that need rain badly) in the Southern, then Eastern Midwest.........not as much in the N.Plains/ Upper Midwest.


 The latest forecasts are below.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

   




7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - July 27, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat Central/Southern Plains.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 9:55 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen. A couple of hot spots.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 27, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Saturday....... feels like Fall in the N/C.Plains/Midwest. Hot deep South.

Blast furnace in the Southwest!!!

                    

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Very Comfortable air N/C Plains/ Midwest!


Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Magnificent Central Plains to Midwet....some warming late week 1.


Record smashing Heat West!!!!!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Below average in the Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.

Record heat in the West and this is just after the hottest time of year!!


High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:06 a.m.
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Cool dry Canadian high pressure Plains to Midwest. Active front Northeast to Midatlantic to Southeast to S.Plains.


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:07 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image:



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:07 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.     All over the place.


By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
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Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(big relief KS/MO/AR coming)

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"


By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days:

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:11 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


                             

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:  New strong cool surge in N/C Plains and Midwest.............. heat  backed up West.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Hot West!!  Below average temperatures  Midwest to South.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Hot West!!!!  Some heat spills east to northeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 240 hour forecast product


Day 15  Hot West to N.Plains.............Heat IS shifting and moving east.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles.  Same question of the last week. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this nudge the trough northward?

Around half of the members have this idea.


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:16 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............looks drastically different than earlier this week!

Big heat ridge builds back up West! Strong cooling Plains and eastward.

Dry and cool northwest flow N.Plains/Midwest.  



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:29 a.m.
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Last GFS 6Z operational model is bullish with heat ridge............many ensembles disagree.

      

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - July 27, 2018, 10:30 a.m.
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0Z GFS ensembles. Ensembles are like versions of the operational model with a slight tweeking of different parameters/mathematical equations. No model has all the perfect set of equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f384.gif

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 1:12 p.m.
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This last operational 12z GFS, like the previous one is bullish with the heat ridge during week 2 over the eastern half of the country...including the entire Midwest:


      gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - July 27, 2018, 1:16 p.m.
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Majority of just updated 12z Canadian ensembles do NOT have this bullish solution.  Many of them have some upper level troughing from the Upper Midwest to Northeast.

The top map is the average of all of them together. The average is always more consistent than an individual operational model........but will be slow to pick up on pattern changes. 

Individual Ensembles are like versions of the parent/operational model with a slight tweeking of different parameters/mathematical equations. No model has all the perfect set of equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere.

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 12, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)


By metmike - July 27, 2018, 3:29 p.m.
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NWS extended forecast........below temperature anomalies continued to shrink in size and magnitude vs their previous outlooks all week.............now the above normal temperatures are growing in area and magnitude.

Bullish for natural gas and bad for corn filling.

Still wet in the East but dry in the Plains and southwest Cornbelt.



Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - July 27, 2018, 3:33 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 3-7:

Widespread heavy rains from the S.Plains eastward!

More heat in the West.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 5:07 p.m.
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NWS week 3-4 outlook:

 Coooool N/C Plains across the Midwest to the Southeast.

Wet southern 2/3rds, dry northern border states.

  


Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability  

By metmike - July 27, 2018, 7:08 p.m.
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The just updated 18Z operational GFS model no longer has the big heat ridge in week 2 as it did for the previous 2 runs. Many of its ensembles were not confirming the heat ridge on the previous solutions and most of the Canadian model ensembles did not show the heat ridge as shown above. 

Now the GFS shows an upper level trough in the Midwest. The map below is the day 14 map.  There is a great deal of rain also.............which the exception of the far Northern Plains(ND).

  Stay tuned.....................the week 2 part of the forecast is even more uncertain than usual.     

gfs_namer_336_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_336_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_336_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_336_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_336_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_336_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_336_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_336_850_temp_ht_s.gif


2 week rains on the last 18Z GFS below:   

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif2 w