KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, August 3, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 276)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 206.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 631.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.7%)
8:15 AM ET. July CANCELLED: ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement
9:45 AM ET. July US Services PMI, Services (previous 52.7)
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (previous 55.3)
Business Activity Idx (previous 56.1)
Prices Idx (previous 80.1)
Employment Idx (previous 47.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 55.6)
10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.7%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:00 AM ET. June Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 422.086M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.523M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 225.131M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.304M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.724M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.784M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.976M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.049M)
11:00 AM ET. July Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.9)
Thursday, August 4, 2022
7:30 AM ET. July Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +57%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 344K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 690.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 412K)
8:30 AM ET. June U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -85.55B)
Exports (USD) (previous 255.89B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Imports (USD) (previous 341.44B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 256K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1359000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -25K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2416B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +15B)
12:00 AM ET. July Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, August 5, 2022
8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +372K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.6%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.08)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.31%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.11%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg
Government Payrolls (previous -9K)
Private Payroll (previous +381K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
3:00 PM ET. June Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +22.3B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 13,812.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,343.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 13,164.61. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 13,812.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,670.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,343.83.
The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3954.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4352.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4041.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3954.80.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 147-27. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 151-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-19.
September T-notes was lower overnight following Tuesday's key reversal down. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.086 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 122.020. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.086. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.142.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:September crude oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $101.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.67. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
September heating oil was higher overnight as it extends July's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.1874 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7914 would confirm an upside breakout of July's trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7914. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at $3.9461. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $3.2946. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874.
September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends July's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at 3.3229 would mark a possible upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4019. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $3.3229. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4019. First support is the July 21st low crossing at 2.8890. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073.
September Henry natural gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.538 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 9.598 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 9.419. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.598. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.538. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.459.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to lower overnight trading as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $107.300 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 16th low crossing at $103.200 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $107.300. Second resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.937. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at $103.200.
The September Euro was steady to higher overnight and the high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200 would mark a possible upside breakout of the July-August trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.04591. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.04591. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
The September British Pound was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2385 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2038 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2385. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2710. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2038. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.1778.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight following Tuesday's key reversal down as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03747 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the July 14th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.06242 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.06065. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.06242. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03747. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.01650.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $78.31 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $78.31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 78.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.40. Second support is July's low crossing at $75.61.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073721 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 0.076118 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-August. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 0.076118. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 0.078281. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073721. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.072085.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1812.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average $1749.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1812.00. Second is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at $1846.60. First support is he 20-day moving average $1749.50. Second support is July's low crossing at $1727.00.
September silver was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $20.505 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.104 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $20.505. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 21.575. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.104. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at $18.010.
September copper was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8184 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.3988 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 3.5800. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8184. First support is the July 15th low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.84 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $6.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.54. First support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.84 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the July 22nd low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $9.15 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.07 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is the July 22nd low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.73 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If November renews the rally off July's low, the June 30th high crossing at $15.07 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 30th high crossing at $15.07 3/4. Second resistance is the June 17th high crossing at $15.563/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.73. Second support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $13.49 1/4. Third support is July's low crossing at $12.88 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight and poised to extend Monday's sharp decline. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $399.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off the July 22nd low, March's high crossing at $436.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $431.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $436.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $399.30. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at $380.80.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.93. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.63. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 54.42.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.65 at $96.18.
October hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remained neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, April's high crossing at $100.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $97.88. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $100.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.31. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $92.43.
October cattle closed down $0.48 at $142.15
October cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at $145.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $145.10. Second resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $145.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $140.39.
September Feeder cattle closed down $1.70 at $181.40.
September Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below last-Friday's low crossing at $178.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at $188.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 22nd high crossing at $184.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $188.25. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $178.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $176.58.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI and have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $20.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.17 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.17. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $20.42. Second support is July's low crossing at $19.60.
September cocoa closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 22.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.97 would open the door for additional gains near-term.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 16.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the June 30th high crossing at 99.49 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 74.58 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!