KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 28, 2022
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +0.3%; previous -1.6%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +7.5%; previous +8.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.1%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +8.0%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous -1.2%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.2%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 249K; previous 251K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +7K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1384000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +51K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 604.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 458.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 511.1K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2401B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +32B)
11:00 AM ET. July Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -1)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 13)
Mfg Composite Idx (expected 3; previous 12)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 10)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, July 29, 2022
8:30 AM ET. June Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +4.7%; previous +4.7%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +1.1%; previous +1.4%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous -3.7%)
9:45 AM ET. July Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 55.0; previous 56.0)
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 51.1; previous 50.0)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 47.5)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.3%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 53.8)
3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Monday, August 1, 2022
9:45 AM ET. July US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.7)
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 53.0)
Prices Idx (previous 78.5)
Employment Idx (previous 47.3)
Inventories (previous 56.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 49.2)
Production Idx (previous 54.9)
10:00 AM ET. June Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous -0.1%)
Residential Construction
11:00 AM ET. July Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.2)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's strong rally. While Wednesday's rally may have surprised some investors the underlying reason for the rally appears to have been the idea that that the most aggressive of the Fed's actions to raise interest rates may now be behind us. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,060.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,060.60. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally that saw the index push and close above the March/April downtrend line. However, overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3894.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4215.81 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3894.00. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 143-11. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-08. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates below July's high crossing at 120.165. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:September crude oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.37 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $100.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.37. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.
September heating oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7968 would confirm an upside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.1874 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7968. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at $3.9461. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $3.2946. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874.
September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.1644 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.1644. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $3.3229. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.4586.
September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn bearish with additional weakness that would signal a short-term top has likely been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 9.598 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.569 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9.419. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.598. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.570.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high,the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.652 is the next downside target. If September renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target.First resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the overnight low crossing at $105.925. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.652.
The September Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.04876. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
The September British Pound was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the July 14th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2246 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2006 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2246. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2385. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 14th low, the June 29th high crossing at 1.05910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03552 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.04910. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.01650. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 28th high crossing at $78.02 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 28th high crossing at $78.02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 78.67. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $77.26. Second support is July's low crossing at $75.61.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075132 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.074300. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075132. First support is July's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was steady to higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1732.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average $1732.40. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1798.70. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1678.40. Second support is the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.957 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.957. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.625. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015.
September copper was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the July 7th high crossing at 3.5800 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 3.5800. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3.8500. First support is the July 15th low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday's low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at $13.49 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.54 3/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at $436.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $397.20 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $430.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $436.80. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $380.80. Second support is July's low crossing at $375.30.
December soybean oil was higher overnight while extending July's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at 62.65 would mark an upside breakout of July's trading range while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at 62.65. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $1.63 at $118.60.
August hogs closed higher on Wednesday and is poised to extend the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at $121.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $118.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $121.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $114.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.86.
October cattle closed down $0.05 at $142.33
October cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at $145.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $140.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $145.10. Second resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $145.98. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $139.30. Second support is July's low crossing at $138.03.
September Feeder cattle closed up $1.43 at $181.85.
September Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below last-Monday's low crossing at $178.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month's rally, February's high crossing at $188.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $184.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $188.25. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $178.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $175.75.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.23. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is July's low crossing at $19.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41.
September cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.11 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the July-2021 low crossing at 22.32 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 16.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the June 30th high crossing at 99.49 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 74.58 is the next downside target.
Thanks much tallpine!
Forecast is the same but not AS HOT in week 2.
Dry and hot still.........then, possibly not as hot late week 2 with the heat dome possibly backing up west but still no rain.