INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 26, 2022, 7:46 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, July 26, 2022   

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +13.8%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +14.6%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. May U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.2%)

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +19.7%)

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.3%)

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +21.2%)

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.1%)

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +20.4%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 

                       Mfg Idx (expected -10; previous -19)

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous -29)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July Consumer Confidence Index

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 97.8; previous 98.7)

 

                       Expectation Idx

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 147.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June New Residential Sales

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 664K; previous 696K)

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -4.6%; previous +10.7%)

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.7)

 



 

 

1:00 PM ET. June Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.3M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.2M)

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,003.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,003.19. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.  



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3873.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4016.25, which coincides with the March-April downtrend line would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4016.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3873.78. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 143-00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-03. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24. Third support is June's low crossing at 131-01.



September T-notes was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:September crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.70 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.70. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.



September heating oil was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7940 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.1874 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7940. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at $3.9461. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $3.2946. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874.



September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.2167 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.2167. Second resistance is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $3.4421. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.4586.  



September Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 9.070 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.777 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8.837. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 9.070. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.542. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.777.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.51 is the next downside target. If September renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target.First resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $105.990. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.513.  



The September Euro was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $1.03200. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05001. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.  



The September British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the July 14th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2251 is the next upside target. If September renews this year's decline, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.2106. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2251. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.



The September Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the July 14th low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 14th low, the June 29th high crossing at 1.05910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03348 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.04620. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.01650. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235.

 

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the July 14th low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 28th high crossing at $78.02 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 28th high crossing at $78.02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 78.67. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $77.24. Second support is July's low crossing at $75.61.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075295 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.074075. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075295. First support is July's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1741.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average $1741.50. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1802.30. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1678.40. Second support is the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30.



September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.137 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.137. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.719. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015.



September copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4339 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4339. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3.8500. First support is the July 15th low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn gapped up and was higher overnight following the latest crop conditions report that showed a 3% decline on the good/excellent rating that has fallen to 61%. Additional support came from the latest extended weather forecast, which is bullish for large portions of the Midwest. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.   



September wheat was higher overnight due to spillover strength from corn and soybeans as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday's low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.  



September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.85 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.34. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans gapped up and was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $13.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off June's high, the January 18th crossing at $12.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $13.93. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.

 

December soybean meal was higher overnight following Monday's huge rally. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's rally, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June's high, July's low crossing at $375.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $412.90. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. First support is July's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40. 



December soybean oil was higher overnight while extending July's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at 62.65 would mark an upside breakout of July's trading range while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at 62.65. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.   

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $1.50 at $117.20. 



August hogs closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at $121.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $118.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $121.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $113.09. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.52. 



October cattle closed up $0.35 at $143.35 



October cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at $145.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $140.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $145.10. Second resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $145.98. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $139.30. Second support is July's low crossing at $138.03. 



September Feeder cattle closed down $2.15 at $182.33. 



September Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at $188.25 is the next upside target. Close below last-Monday's low crossing at $178.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $184.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $188.25. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $178.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $175.12.     



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.22. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is July's low crossing at $19.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41.                   



September cocoa closed sharply higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.15 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the July-2021 low crossing at 22.32 is the next downside target.     



October sugar closed sharply lower for the fifth-day in a row on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 16.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                  



October cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - July 26, 2022, 8:56 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Wx still bullish!

big rains southern belt this week!