INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 25, 2022, 4:57 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Tuesday, July 26, 2022  



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +13.8%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +14.6%)



9:00 AM ET. May U.S. Monthly House Price Index



9:00 AM ET. May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.2%)

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +19.7%)

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.3%)

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +21.2%)

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.1%)

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +20.4%)



10:00 AM ET. July Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

                       Mfg Idx (expected -10; previous -19)

                       Shipments Idx (previous -29)



10:00 AM ET. July Consumer Confidence Index

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 97.8; previous 98.7)

                       Expectation Idx

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 147.1)



10:00 AM ET. June New Residential Sales

                       New Home Sales (expected 664K; previous 696K)

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -4.6%; previous +10.7%)

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.7)



1:00 PM ET. June Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.3M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.2M)



  N/A              U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the aforementioned rally, the July 10th gap crossing at 32,267.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,271.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 10th gap crossing at 32,267.78. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 33.272.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,272.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 30.143.93.



The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Monday following last-Friday's key reversal down as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,987.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00. Third support is June's low crossing at 11,092.50.



The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3872.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4016.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3872.66. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.    



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed down 20-pts. at 141-14. 



September T-bonds posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 143-00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28. First support is the June 11th low crossing at 136-24. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 134-08. Third support is June's low crossing at 131-01. 



September T-notes closed down 65-pts. at 119.220.



September T-notes posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.145 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.33. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.74. First support is the July 14thlow crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rallycrossing at $86.43.  



September heating oil closed higher on Monday while extending July's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7944 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7944. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.3703. First support is the June 6th low crossing at 3.2946. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874.   



September unleaded gas closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2376 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2376. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4454. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.8890. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073.



September Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of June's decline crossing at 9.070 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.315 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of June's decline crossing at 9.070. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.598. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.523. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.313.      



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.534 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance isthe 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $105.990. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.438.   



The September Euro closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02844 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline, the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02844. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05053. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540. 



The September British Pound closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2020 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2020. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2255. First support is July's low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.  

 

The September Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1.05910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03177 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.04620. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support is the July 14thcrossing at 1.01650. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the June 28th high crossing at 78.02 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the October-2020 low crossing at 75.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 78.02. Second resistance is  the 50% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 78.67. First support is July's low crossing at 75.61. Second support is the October-2020 low crossing at 75.06.



The September Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073436. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075397 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.074075. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075397. First support is July's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730.    



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1746.80 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If August renews the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1746.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1804.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1678.40. Second support is the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30.  



September silver closed lower on Monday as it extends July's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.276 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.276. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.769. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015. 



September copper closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4509 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4509. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3.8500. First support is the July 15th low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 2.8770.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up $0.19 1/2-cents at $5.83 3/4. 



December corn closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the June 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second  support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4.    



September wheat closed up $0.11-cents at $7.70.  



September wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $7.23.



September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.19 1/2-cents at $8.39 3/4.



September Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it extended the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.91 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.91 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.14 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.13-cents at $8.84.



September Minneapolis wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.56. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.56. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4.

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up $0.30 1/4-cents at $13.46.



November soybeans closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength on Tuesday to signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.11 1/2 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.72. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.76.



December soybean meal closed up $17.10 at $399.10. 



December soybean meal closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $429.60. First support is July's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.  



December soybean oil closed down 50-pts. at 57.37. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Monday as it extends July's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 5th gap crossing at 62.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the July 5th gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is July's low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $1.50 at $117.20. 



August hogs closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at $121.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $118.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $121.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $113.09. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.52. 



October cattle closed up $0.35 at $143.35 



October cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at $145.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $140.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $145.10. Second resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $145.98. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $139.30. Second support is July's low crossing at $138.03. 



September Feeder cattle closed down $2.15 at $182.33. 



September Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at $188.25 is the next upside target. Close below last-Monday's low crossing at $178.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $184.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $188.25. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $178.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $175.12.     



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.22. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is July's low crossing at $19.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41.                   



September cocoa closed sharply higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.15 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the July-2021 low crossing at 22.32 is the next downside target.     



October sugar closed sharply lower for the fifth-day in a row on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 16.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                  



October cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - July 25, 2022, 7:18 p.m.
Like Reply

Notice that you had this in bold: First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.72. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.76.


Weather has turned bullish but huge rains southern cornbelt this week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87483/


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/