INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 22, 2022, 4:45 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, July 25, 2022  



8:30 AM ET. June CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous 0.01)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.20)



10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous -17.7)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 2.3)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the aforementioned rally, the July 10th gap crossing at 32,267.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,248.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 10th gap crossing at 32,267.78. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 33.272.34. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 30.143.93. Second support is June's low crossing at 29.653.29. 



The September NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,978.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00. Third support is June's low crossing at 11,092.50.



The September S&P 500 closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3870.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4016.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3870.03. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.    



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 1-28-pts. at 142-07. 



September T-bonds closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 143-00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28. First support is the June 11th low crossing at 136-24. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 134-08. Third support is June's low crossing at 131-01. 



September T-notes closed up 1020-pts. at 119.310.



September T-notes closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends July's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 117.145 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.82. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rallycrossing at $86.43.  



September heating oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7963 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7963. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.3703. First support is the June 6th low crossing at 3.2946. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874.   



September unleaded gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2621 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2621. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4493. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $3.8890. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073.



September Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of June's decline crossing at 8.550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.547 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of June's decline crossing at 8.550. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of June's decline crossing at 9.070. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.503. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.548.      



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.399 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance isthe 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.399. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.391.   



The September Euro closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.03019 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline, the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.03019. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05123. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540. 



The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2031 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2031. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2259. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.  

 

The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1.05910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03026 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.04620. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support the 75% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.01656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the June 28th high crossing at 78.02 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the October-2020 low crossing at 75.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.72. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 78.02. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 75.79. Second support is the October-2020 low crossing at 75.06.



The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073483 would signal that the short-term low has been posted. . The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075480 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073565. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075634. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730.    



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1752.20 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1752.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1807.30. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1678.40. Second support is the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30.  



September silver closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.409 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.409. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.832. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 . 



September copper closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4686 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4686. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3.8500. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 2.8770.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down $0.09 1/4-cents at $5.64 1/4. 



December corn closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.09 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.09 3/4. Second resistance is the June 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second  support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4.    



September wheat closed down $0.47 1/4-cents at $7.59.  



September wheat closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.42 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.42 1/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $7.23.



September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.41-cents at $8.20 1/4.



September Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.99 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.99 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $8.14 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.41 1/2-cents at $8.71.



September Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower on Friday and posted a new low for the month. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.50 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.50 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.56. First support is today's low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4.

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up $0.14 1/4-cents at $13.15 3/4.



November soybeans closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.11 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.75 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.75 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.76.



December soybean meal closed down $3.20 at $382.00. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.  If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $429.60. First support is July's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.  



December soybean oil closed up 181-pts. at 57.87. 



December soybean oil closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 5th gap crossing at 62.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the July 5th gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $2.28 at $118.58. 



August hogs closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at $121.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $118.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $121.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $112.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.99. 



August cattle closed up $1.43 at $137.15 



August cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $137.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $132.88. Second support is June's low crossing at $131.70. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $3.38 at $181.65. 



August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at $182.10 is the next upside target. Close below Monday's low crossing at $175.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $182.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $187.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $175.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $172.31.     



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.24. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is July's low crossing at $19.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41.                    



September cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the July-2021 low crossing at 22.32 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.17 is the next upside target.    



October sugar closed sharply lower for the fourth-day in a row on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 18.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                   



October cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - July 22, 2022, 6:11 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Too much rain in the forecast for C and S  to do anything but go down overall this week because its July.


All they did was get 1 day closer, each day. Now they're solidly in the week 1 weather forecast:

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                                    


            

                

By metmike - July 22, 2022, 6:15 p.m.
Like Reply

I think that August has a high potential to turn to widespread hot/dry after the early month rains............but with low confidence.


Just updated this afternoon:

This is low skill but I agree with it. If correct, especially if the dryness shifts a bit east, then grain prices will go up in August.

There's actually a decent positive seasonal for grains to go up in August.

The  years when that failed were when there was tons of rain in August.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

    

Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 06 Aug 2022 to 19 Aug 2022
Updated: 22 Jul 2022

Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability