INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 20, 2022, 4:52 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, July 21, 2022 



8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous -3.3)

                       Prices Paid (previous 64.5)

                       Employment (previous 28.1)

                       New Orders (previous -12.4)

                       Prices Received (previous 49.2)

                       Delivery Times (previous 9.9)

                       Inventories (previous -2.2)

                       Shipments (previous 10.8)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (previous 244K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +9K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1331000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -41K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 407.2K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous -248.9K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 1047.2K)



10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

                       Leading Index

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.8%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2369B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +58B)

                       

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, July 22, 2022 



9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 52.4)



9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Services PMI

                       PMI, Services (previous 51.6)



10:00 AM ET. June State Employment and Unemployment



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the upper boundary of the June-July trading range crossing at 31,885.09 would mark an upside breakout of this sideways pattern while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,110.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 31,885.09. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 33.272.34. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 30.143.93. Second support is June's low crossing at 29.653.29. 



The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 11,479.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,517.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,092.50.



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday marking an upside breakout of the June-July trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3921.32 has renew the rally off June's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 3723.75 would confirm that a double top with the June 28th high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3977.25. Second resistance is the May 31st high crossing at 4204.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3723.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.    



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed down 1-pts. at 138-16. 



September T-bonds closed slightly lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 136-24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th high crossing at 142-06. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28. First support is the June 11th low crossing at 136-24. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 134-08. Third support is June's low crossing at 131-01. 



September T-notes closed down 55-pts. at 117.255.



September T-notes closed lower on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past three weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 8th low crossing at 117.180 would signal a resumption of the decline off July's high. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204. First support is the July 8th low crossing at 117.180. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $88.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.62. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $90.56. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rallycrossing at $88.16.  



August heating oil closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8747 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8747. Second resistance is June's high  crossing at $4.4898. First support is the June 6th low crossing at 3.3510. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689.   



August unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6284 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.9354 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4662. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6159. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.0999. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.9354.



August Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 9.645 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.455 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.040. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.645. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.455. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.325.      



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.138 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.138. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.305.   



The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.03393 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline, the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.03394. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05279. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540. 



The September British Pound posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2060 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2060. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2273. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.  

 

The September Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03770 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00981 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03770. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support the 75% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.01656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the June 28th high crossing at 78.02 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the October-2020 low crossing at 75.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.70. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 78.02. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 75.79. Second support is the October-2020 low crossing at 75.06.



The September Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073565 would signal that the short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073565. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075634. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730.    



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1763.60 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1763.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1812.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1695.00. Second support is the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30.  



September silver closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.677 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.677. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.956. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 . 



September copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5218 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5218. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3.8500. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 2.8770.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down $0.05 1/4-cents at $5.90. 



December corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.20 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.20 1/2. Second resistance is the June 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4.    



September wheat closed up $0.07 1/4-cents at $8.19 1/2.  



September wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.61 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.61 1/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $7.65 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $7.23.



September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.01 1/4-cents at $8.70 1/2.



September Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.18 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.18 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03 3/4-cents at $9.06 3/4.



September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.70 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.70 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.56. First support is July's low crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4.

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down $0.26-cents at $13.32 1/4.



November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.11 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.89 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.89 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.76.



December soybean meal closed down $0.70 at $390.90. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $429.60. First support is July's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.  



December soybean oil closed down 192-pts. at 57.60. 



December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 5th gap crossing at 62.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the July 5th gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $2.00 at $114.83. 



August hogs gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at $121.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $115.18. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $121.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.89. Second support is June's low crossing at $100.25. 



August cattle closed up $0.10 at $135.82 



August cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $137.95 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $132.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $132.88. Second support is June's low crossing at $131.70. 



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.75 at $178.00. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Close below last-Monday's low crossing at $170.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month's rally, March's high crossing at $182.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $182.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $187.10. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $170.00. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.21. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $19.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41.                    



September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.56 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, the July-2021 low crossing at 22.32 is the next downside target.   



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews this months rally, June's high crossing at 19.89 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off May's high, the February 28th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target.                      



October cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - July 20, 2022, 9:01 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!

Last 18z GFS was back to wetter again. Maybe the wettest yet.

Light blue is 2"+