KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, July 15, 2022
8:30 AM ET. July Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected -1; previous -1.2)
Employment Idx (previous 19.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 5.3)
Prices Received (previous 43.6)
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous -0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. June Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous +0.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +6.7%)
9:15 AM ET. June Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 80.5%; previous 79.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +1.2%; previous +1.2%)
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 50.2; previous 50.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 46.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 55.4)
Monday, July 18, 2022
10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 67)
4:00 PM ET. May Treasury International Capital Data
Tuesday, July 19, 2022
8:30 PM ET. June New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.549M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -14.4%)
Building Permits (previous 1.695M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -7.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,751.94 would temper the near-term friendly outlook while opening the door for a test of the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,079.64 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,079.64. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,068.50.
The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 3642.00 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3936.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3936.80. Second resistance is the May 31st high crossing at 4204.75. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 3741.25. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 136-24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 142-06. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 136-24. Second support is June's low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is likely near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 117.180 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 117.180. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:August crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.57 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $88.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $100.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.57. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $90.56. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $88.16.
August heating oil was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is likely near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9180 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.2689 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.8777. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9180. First support is the last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.3510. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689.
August unleaded gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the April 25th low crossing at 2.9974 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.6292 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3516. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5376. First support is the April 25th low crossing at 2.9974. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.9354.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.563 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.158 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 6.898. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.563. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4.083.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.747 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $107.195. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.747.
The September Euro was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.03931 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.01967. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.03931. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
The September British Pound was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2106 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2106. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2300. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03881 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03240. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support is the 75% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.01656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline that saw the market post a new low for the year. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.72. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at $78.02. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.09.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073876 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073876. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075920. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1784.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1738.70. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1784.30. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1704.50. Second support is the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30.
September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.132 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $19.023. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.132. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6315 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3947. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6315. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $6.58 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.90 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $9.40 1/4 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.96 1/4. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $7.77 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $9.98 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.54 1/4. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $10.44 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.06 1/2. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the crossing at $12.99 1/4 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.76 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.15 3/4. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.74.
December soybean meal was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off Monday's high, July's low crossing at $375.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $419.10. First support is July's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.
December soybean oil was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed down $0.85 at $109.65.
August hogs closed lower on Thursday and filled Wednesday's gap crossing at $109.17. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.75 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.75. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $114.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.38. Second support is June's low crossing at $100.25.
August cattle closed down $1.48 at $135.40
August cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidate some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $137.95 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $132.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support Monday's low crossing at $132.88. Second support is June's low crossing at $131.70. Third support is May's low crossing at $129.97.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.70 at $179.10.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at $182.10 is the next upside target. Close below Monday's low crossing at $170.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $182.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $187.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $170.00. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.16. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is today's low crossing at $19.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41.
September cocoa closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the July-2021 low crossing at 22.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Thursday as they consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this months rally, June's high crossing at 19.89 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off May's high, the February 28th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target.
October cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!