KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, July 13, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 305.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.4%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 232.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 670.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.7%)
8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. June CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +1.1%; previous +1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.6%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.9%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +8.8%; previous +8.6%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +5.7%; previous +6%)
10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 423.8M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.234M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.112M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.496M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.135M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.266M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.464M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.467M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
2:00 PM ET. June Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
Thursday, July 14, 2022
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 44.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 80.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 286.4K)
8:30 AM ET. June PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +0.8%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.6%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 234K; previous 235K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1375000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +51K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2311B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +60B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, July 15, 2022
8:30 AM ET. July Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected -1; previous -1.2)
Employment Idx (previous 19.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 5.3)
Prices Received (previous 43.6)
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous -0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. June Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous +0.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +6.7%)
9:15 AM ET. June Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 80.5%; previous 79.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +1.2%; previous +1.2%)
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 50.2; previous 50.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 46.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 55.4)
Monday, July 18, 2022
10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 67)
4:00 PM ET. May Treasury International Capital Data
Tuesday, July 19, 2022
8:30 PM ET. June New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.549M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -14.4%)
Building Permits (previous 1.695M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -7.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,721.98 would temper the near-term friendly outlook while opening the door for a test of the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,132.97 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,132.97. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,068.50.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3814.65 would temper the near-term friendly outlook while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the June 30th low crossing at 3741.25. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3951.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3950.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3951.98. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 3741.25. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 142-06. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-21. Second support is June's low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.141 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.141. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:August crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the April 25th low crossing at $93.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $102.61. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.90. First support is the overnight low crossing at $93.67. Second support is the April 25th low crossing at $93.45.
August heating oil was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9882 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.2689 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.8755. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9882. First support is the last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.3510. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689.
August unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for additional weakness when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off June's high, the April 25th low crossing at 2.9974 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.6329 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.4339. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6329. First support is May's low crossing at $3.1835. Second support is the April 25th low crossing at 2.9974.
August Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.414 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. First resistance is 20-day moving average crossing at 6.414. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.604. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4.083.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.317 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $108.420. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $106.479. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.317.
The September Euro was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.04326 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.02822. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.04326. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1.00480. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
The September British Pound was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1802 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2128 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2128. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2325. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1823. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1802.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.01656 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03715 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03715. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support is the 75% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.01656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.77 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.77. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $79.84. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $76.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076122 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074118. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076122. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.072940. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the August-2021 low crossing at $1710.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1795.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1759.40. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1795.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1719.80. Second support is the August-2021 low crossing at $1710.20.
September silver was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.415 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $19.445. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.415. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $18.630. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015.
September copper was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7279 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.5007. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7279. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2498. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it extended the decline off Monday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.50 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.50 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.96. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.23 3/4 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.23 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.46 1/2. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $7.77 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $9.98 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $9.98 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.18. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.36 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.65 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the crossing at $12.99 1/4 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.81 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.33 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.81 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.74.
December soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off Monday's high, last-Tuesday's low crossing at $375.30 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off last-Tuesday's low, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $419.10. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01 would temper the near-term bearish outlook while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.83. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 55.69. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.
Thanks tallpine!
markets deciding to follow the weather more today after yesterdays, bloodbath from USDA, crude crashing and funds selling.
However, the models are actually getting LESS bullish today!