INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 8, 2022, 5 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, July 11, 2022  



10:00 AM ET. June Employment Trends Index

                       ETI (previous 119.77)

                       ETI, Y/Y%


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,929.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow renews the decline off last-week's high, June's low crossing at 29,653.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 31,885.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,929.74. First support is June's low crossing at 29.653.29. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 29,814.73. 



The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average 12,212.67 would signal that the near-term trend has turned sideways to higher. If September renews the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at 11,092.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,212.67. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 11,351.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,092.50. 



The September S&P 500 closed unchanged on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3974.15 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the last-Thursday's low crossing at 3741.25 would confirm that a double top with the June 28th high. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3950.0. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3974.14. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3741.25. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.    



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September T-bonds closed down 1-15. at 136-30. 



September T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Wednesday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 142-06. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-01. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134-08. Third support is June's low crossing at 131-01. 



September T-notes closed down 190 pts. at 117.215.



September T-notes closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.049 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.049. Second support is June's low crossing at 114.075.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at $91.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.32. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $123.68. First support is April's low crossing at $91.66. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rallycrossing at $88.16.  



August heating oil closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8622 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8622. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.0664. First support is May's low crossing at 3.3578. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689.   



August unleaded gas posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6294 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.9354 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6294. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6969. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $3.1880. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.9354.



August Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.788 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.788. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.661. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2021-2022 rally crossing at 4.083.      



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.901 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $107.615. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.901. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.635.   



The September Euro closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05051 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.04351. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05051. First support is today's low crossing at $1.01215. Second support is the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540. 



The September British Pound closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2190 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1802 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2190. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2363. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1892. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1802.  

 

The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.02407 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.06242 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.06242. First support the 62% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.02407. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 75.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.83. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.84. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 76.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 75.79.



The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076387 would signal that the short-term trend has turned neutral to high prices are possible near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074350. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076387. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.073390. Second support is the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730.    



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the August-2021low crossing at $1710.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1813.70 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1788.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1813.70. First support is today's low crossing at $1726.00. Second support is the August-2021low crossing at $1710.20.  



September silver closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.830 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.067. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.830. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 18.705. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 . 



September copper posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8745 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 3.2498 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.6299. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8745. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.2730. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 3.2498.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up $0.27 1/4-cents at $6.23 1/2. 



December corn closed higher on Friday and above Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.04 1/4 as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's short covering rally, the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.68 1/2 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.25 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.68 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4.    



September wheat closed up $0.55-cents at $8.91 1/2.  



September wheat closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.61 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.61 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.61 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.85 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $7.23.



September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.56 1/2-cents at $9.45 3/4.



September Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.26 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $10.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.26 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.57 1/4-cents at $9.91 3/4.



September Minneapolis wheat closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.79. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.79 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4.

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up $0.31-cents at $13.96 1/2.



November soybeans closed higher on Friday and filled Tuesday's gap crossing at $13.91 1/4 as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.05 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.11 1/2 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.05  1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.63 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.76.



December soybean meal closed up $11.90 at $403.70. 



December soybean meal closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Friday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, last-Thursday's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $429.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.  



December soybean oil closed up 90-pts. at 60.49. 



December soybean oil closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. First resistance Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 67.76. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 55.69. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $0.48 at $109.03. 



August hogs closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 21st high crossing at $110.23 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $111.75. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $114.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.63. Second support is May's low crossing at $98.65. 



August cattle closed down $0.63 at $133.93 



August cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.55 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $129.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $131.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.    



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.65 at $171.83. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below the June 13th low crossing at $169.40 would open the door for a possible test of the May 31st low crossing at $164.75 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the June 13th low crossing at $169.40. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the May 24th low crossing at $21.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $23.71 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $23.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.18. First support is the May 24th low crossing at $21.14. Second support is May's low crossing at $20.24.                    



September cocoa closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target.  



October sugar closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off May's high, the February 28th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target.                      



October cotton closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 23rd gap crossing at 114.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - July 8, 2022, 6:07 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

No change to the weather forecast.The La Nina driven heat ridge could be there for much of the rest of Summer!


Closing above the Tuesdays gap down confirms the gap and crap -selling exhaustion-technical signature on the charts for both c and s, (with c being stronger as it closed the gap on Thursday) as a result of the weather pattern change to much drier next week, then heating up and remaining dry in week 2. 

Extremely bullish grains.........as long as the models don't change the next 2 days, it's  setting us up for a gap higher on Sunday Night.............all things remaining the same.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature ProbabilityWeek 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

                

                    

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#86910

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/86654/#86911