USDA June 30, 2022
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Started by metmike - June 29, 2022, 2:19 p.m.

@kannbwx

Analysts see a small combined bump in #cotton and small grains plantings from both March and last year. Cotton acreage is seen notably larger than a year ago, but #sorghum quite a bit less.

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By metmike - June 29, 2022, 2:20 p.m.
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@kannbwx

The expected decline in #wheat plantings includes a spring wheat acreage that would be the lowest since 1972 if realized. A reduction in durum acres is also predicted, though it would still be above last year. Spring wheat planting pace was among the slowest on record.

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By metmike - June 29, 2022, 2:21 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Analysts are looking for a bump in U.S. #corn plantings on Thursday but a trim for #soybeans. USDA's survey-based June corn acreage has fallen outside the trade range of guesses in 3 of last 6 years, soybeans 2 of 6. Corn range of guesses (2.6M acres) is a 5yr low.

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By metmike - June 29, 2022, 2:34 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#Soybeans in USDA's June 30 reports have been on a very distinct trend in recent years relative to trade guesses. A bearish number has turned up in only 1 of the 14 stocks/acres chances since 2015 (stocks - 2016). It's been 8 years since soybean futures plunged on this day.

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By metmike - June 29, 2022, 2:35 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#Corn is much more mixed. Analysts have been both too high and too low on acres and stocks in recent years, though last year was the first since 2015 without at least one bearish number. Note the price moves - they tend to be pretty large.

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By metmike - June 30, 2022, 12:01 p.m.
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Bullish initial response by the market, especially beans!

By metmike - June 30, 2022, 12:03 p.m.
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I'll have the numbers in a minute!

@kannbwx

All trade estimates for USDA's acreage and grain stocks reports due Thursday at 11 am CDT. In the past, corn and soy futures tend to move more on the acreage number rather than the stocks. Don't forget about the weather forecasts, which often add to big market moves on this day.

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By metmike - June 30, 2022, 12:04 p.m.
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Trade estimates were super close on June 1 stocks of U.S. #corn, #soybeans and #wheat.

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By metmike - June 30, 2022, 12:12 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Trade basically nailed plantings of U.S. #corn, but #soybeans fall BELOW the pre-report range of guesses.

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By metmike - June 30, 2022, 12:13 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #wheat acres come in just a little higher than analysts expected, including a fall in winter plantings from March. Spring wheat acres were a bit more than expected, slightly down from March.

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By metmike - June 30, 2022, 12:17 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #cotton and #barley plantings were larger than analysts predicted, but #sorghum, #oats and #rice smaller.

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