Excessive Rainfall threat.......... East today.  Central Plains after that.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook	Forecaster: Hart/Kerr Issued: 18/1240Z Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
Current Day 2 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0600Z Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 3 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0731Z Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Thursday....... new cool surge N.Plains/Midwest. Blast furnace in the Southwest!!!

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Comfortable air N.Plains/ Midwest.  High dewpoints for Northeast/East Coast...........Atlantic moisture pouring in!

Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.

Highs days 3-7.

Magnificent North(especially Upper Midwest/N.Plains). Hot South...then cooling.

Record Heat West!!!!!

How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Below average in the N/C.Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.

Record heat in the West and this is the hottest time of year!!

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Active in the East/Northeast with Atlantic moisture pouring in. Active in the Central Plains to Upper Midwest.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.

Rains the past 24 hours.     

Wet in the East.    High Plains to Upper Midwest.

Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(relief KS/MO/AR late this week)

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days:

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  New cool surge N.Plains.............. heat  backed up West...pushed southwest in S.Plains.

In 5+ days:

Hot West!!  Below average temperatures N/C.Plains/ Midwest.

In 10+ days   Hot West!!!!  A bit Below average Midwest to Southeast.

Day 15  Hot West to Plains.............Heat may be shifting and moving

Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles.  Same question of the last week. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this nudge the trough northward?

Around half of the members have this idea.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............heat ridge south! north.  

Precip below:

August Forecast. Updated by the NWS last Thursday.

Very warm/hot, except for the N.Plains.

Dry Southern Plains to Southwest Cornbelt.............where soils are driest right now(there is a correlation as drought begets drought)

Thanks, Mike.  I hate to see those charts, however.  We're up in Terrace, BC and this might be the first time I will need to hook up the two 2kw generators and sync them to make a 4kw to run the air conditioner.

I'm worried also about fires up here - if those forecasts prove accurate.

Welcome back to the forum cfdr!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrace,_British_Columbia

I see that your normal high is around 70 and low around 55 this time of year. Yes, you are correct that some of this heat in the West is headed  way up north and into Canada and your way.

Latest 12z GFS has the same idea...........heat ridge building east over, at least the southern 1/2 of the country, upper level trough N.Plains/Upper Midwest.....jet stream northern 1/3 and heavy rains over the top of the heat  ridge.

Very warm and very humid air will be gushing north from the Gulf of Mexico.

Heavy to excessive rains will be a noteworthy feature with this pattern.

      12z GFS at 2 weeks below:

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht

2 week rains below:

Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

NWS extended forecast........below temperature anomalies continue to shrink in size and magnitude in the later period vs their previous outlooks. 

Wet in the eastern parts of the country. Possibly dry in the Plains.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

Extreme weather days 3-7:

Heavy rains events in the east on one side of the country, record heat on the other side of the country. 

      Last 18z operational GFS has the heat ridge much more impressive with intense heat over the Cornbelt in week 2. 

But still pretty wet

Outlier?

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht

Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif