Thanks very much mcfarm!
Eric is always the best in the business but this was a Hall of Fame deserving weather video!
I KEEP CLOSE TABS IN MY AREA, WITH WEATHER UNDERGROUND. EACH DAY THIS WEEK, THEY'D BE TAKING RAIN CHANCES OUT.
LATE LAST NIGHT, WE HAD ONE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE 3 DAY, JULY 4TH HOLIDAY. (YESTERDAY, IT WAS EACH DAY OVER THE 4TH.)
THIS MORNING, JUST FRIDAY THE 1ST, HAS 40-50% CHANCE OF T-STORMS WITH 1/10" OF RAIN. BUT... THEY ADDED MAYBE, 2/10'S OVER NITE, TONIGHT. NOW, IT'S STILL A CHANCE OF 1/10" WITH STORMS @ 40% CHANCE,THE 4TH.
THE TEMP'S HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH AT ALL. STARTING ON TUES., BACK INTO THE 80'S & 90'S
same here Jean. We missed yesterday. Have been in the 90's and now we have a 50% but not until next weekend. When the weekend gets here that chance will be gone, if the last 3 weeks repeat. Today that rain was south of us and went from S Ind spread across sw to Texas but never made it here. Starting to get real critical.
Actually, mcfarm rain chances go up for you towards the end of this week and continue elevated the first week of July.
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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Increased rain chances farther east compared to Friday.
2 week totals below from the last 6z GFS ensemble run.
WELL, MCFARM... OVERNITE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WENT TO 65%.
WE DID GET RAIN... A WHOPPING 0.05 IN A WEATHER STATION, A 1/2 MILE FROM ME, AT A FARM.
YEP, SURE 'NUFF... THE PORCH RAIL WAS DAMP.
FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS... 10-15 MPH WINDS... 80'S & 90'S... 50% CHANCE OF 0.25 RAIN ON FRI.
Got .26 in southwest IN.
Just west of here, a huge area of 1+ inches
better chances for the weekend? With the recent problems with the models and the basic problem of predicting weather in the first place there is little to no chance anyone could predict early July. And the call I read for 50% for the weekend at this point looks generous at best.
Thanks meteorologist mcfarm!
just checked again and our first chance above 50% is a week from Tuesday. Anyone want to bet on a forecast a week from next Tuesday? Good luck on that one.
Here's your forecast mcfarm.
It's extremely unlikely that the forecast will stay like this without some updates, possibly big updates as rain events get within a couple of days.
Things can get wetter instead of drier too but I know that you prefer pessimism.
The point is not that we can forecast the rain for the next 2 weeks with any skill, which w we can't obviously but instead that rain chance are GREATER for Indiana then they were on Friday, starting towards the end of this week.
You could still miss the rains......but models are wetter and have MORE rain than 3 days ago. With the heat picking up again, evaporation/evapotranspiration will be high so above average rain will be needed.
Areas that completely miss the rains will see substantial deteriorization in crop conditions.
well were talking about the accuracy of weather forecasts, specifically LT weather forecasts. Don't know how pessimism entered the deal but this is not about optimism or pessimism its about reality. And yes weather can turn wetter [thanks for that} or it can turn dry or drier depending. Guess what? Do you know when it rains? Well, after a dry spell.
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