INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 23, 2022, 7:39 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, June 23, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions

 

                       Current Account (USD) (expected -274.0B; previous -217.88B)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 229K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous  1312000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 56.1; previous 57.5)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 53.5; previous 53.5)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2095B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +92B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 418.714M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.956M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 217.474M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.71M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 109.709M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.725M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 93.7%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.703M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.524M)

 

                       

 

11:00 AM ET. June Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 19)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 39)

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 23)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 31)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases annual bank stress test results

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, June 24, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 279.8K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 724.8K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 236.9K)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 600K; previous 591K)

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -16.6%)

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 9.0)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 50.2; previous 58.4)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 55.2)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.3%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 63.3)

 



 

 

Monday, June 27, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                        

 

10:00 AM ET. May Pending Home Sales Index

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 99.3)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -3.9%)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -9.1%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (previous -7.3)

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 18.8)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,076.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this year's decline, the November-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 10,942.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,076.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,601.24. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 11,068.50. Second support is the November-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 10,942.25.



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 13th gap crossing at 3896.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this year's decline the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 13th gap crossing at 3896.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3949.44. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3642.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-05 is the next upside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-05. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131-01. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.



September T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.116 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the June-2009 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 112.255 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.194. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.116. First support is June's low crossing at 114.075. Second support is the June-2009 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 112.255. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:August crude oil was lower overnight and trading below key support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.98. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $95.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.43. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $120.88. First support is May's low crossing at $95.47. Second support is April's low crossing at $91.66.



August heating oil was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1433 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $4.4898. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1433. Second support is is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7608.



August unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5472 would open the door for a larger-degree decline and possible test of the May 19th low crossing at 3.2904. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8433 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $4.1237. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5472. Second support is the May 19th low crossing at $3.2904.    



August Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 6.507 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.173 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.901. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.173. First support is May's low crossing at 6.507. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.947.      



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a  higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.779 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $105.565. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.208. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.779.  



The September Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06926 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $1.04255 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06926. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1.08530. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1.04280. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.04255.  



The September British Pound was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2414 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2414. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2528. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1952. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914.



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, May's high crossing at 1.05470 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.02771 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1.05470. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.06242. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.02771. Second support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.00235. Third support is May's low crossing at 1.00170. 

 

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.30. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $79.84. First support is May's low crossing at $76.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79.



The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the June 16th high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076022 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076022. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.077400. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.073580. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $1792.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average $1874.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1874.70. Second is June's high crossing at $1882.50. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1806.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $1792.00.



July silver was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at $20.420 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.547 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $22.565. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 23.102. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $20.845. Second support is May's low crossing at $20.420. 



July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.5861 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2487 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.1181. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2487. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.9230. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.5861.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight and poised to extend the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 13th low crossing at $7.58 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off June's low, the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.61 3/4. Second support is the June 13th low crossing at $7.58 1/2.   



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.62 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.34 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.62 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $9.45 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.73.  



July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $9.91 the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.42 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.42. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $9.91. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $9.08.



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.18 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.08 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.76. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $10.04.

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $15.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.04 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.79 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $17.84. First support is May's low crossing at $15.78. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2.

 

July soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $421.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews last-week's rally, the April 21st high crossing at $467.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $440.00. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $421.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June 7th low crossing at $404.00.



July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 65.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.35. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.36. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 69.46. Second support is April's low crossing at $67.52.   


Comments
By metmike - June 23, 2022, 11:17 a.m.
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Thanks much tallpine!