@kannbwx

In South America, analysts believe USDA will lower #Brazil's #corn crop (CONAB slightly increased its estimate on Wed). #Argentina corn seen slightly smaller, but minimal changes anticipated for #soybeans.

@kannbwx

Analysts don't expect big changes to U.S. supply & demand forecasts in USDA's report on Friday. New-crop #corn and old-crop #soybeans are seen shrinking from last month's outlook, small expansion predicted for old-crop #wheat.

USDA's #India attache officially cuts the 22/23 #wheat crop to 99 mmt from 110 mmt (they told us 2 weeks ago), but it notes its trade sources suggest an even smaller crop between 92-100 mmt. July 2022-June 2023 exports seen at 3 mmt, less than 1/3 of the prior year.

@kannbwx

U.S. #wheat production comes in above expectations, but up only a little from last month's estimate. White winter wheat was the (mild) surprise here. NASS will make its first assessment of spring wheat next month, which could change the all wheat estimate.

@kannbwx

No changes to crop estimates for U.S. #corn or #soybeans. There is precedent for the World Board to reduce corn acres in June when planting progress was slow, so some thought that was possible. They had already cut yield from the 181 bu/acre trend last month bc of slow planting.

@kannbwx

5m

For good measure, here are the 22/23 South American estimates, unchanged from last month. Would be very early to make any changes here unless there were compelling reasons to shift planted area assumptions.

@kannbwx

No changes to South America's #corn crop, but #soybeans were increased in both #Argentina & #Brazil.

Odd

"The U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its outlook for world corn inventories as more corn remains unshipped in Russia and Ukraine.

In its monthly world supply and demand report, the USDA said that world corn stocks are expected at 310.45 million
metric tons for the 2022/23 marketing year--an unusual 5.3-million-ton increase to the projection. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal before the report's release had expected inventories to total 305 million tons.

Additionally, the USDA raised its outlook for Ukrainian corn production, "reflecting higher area based on data
reported by the government."

Unless the Ukraine war stops in the near future and port damage gets repaired quickly, I can not believe Ukraine will export the USDA assumptions

It seems as if russia is on a mission to destroy as much Ukraine grain stocks as possible. Even to the point of not enough for Ukraine domestic needs let alone shipping much for export, as russia seems to be on a mission to destroy the entire country

I have not sold any new crop corn and will not do so until next winter and we see what the world S & D looks like

SA can not step in and replace Uk

NA is one of the few places to acquire extra grain stocks

Thanks Wayne!

Thanks Jim!

Russia seems determined to prevent Ukraine grain stocks reaching world markets except what they steal

Russia has destroyed port facilities, stored ware house grain and stole or destroyed grain harvesters 

and some thing new is happening

Russia is setting fire to grain in the field

Can't do a link but saw a video of wheat field on fire last week

Also Brazil is worried about diesel fuel to harvest and plant crops

Question is

Will all crops counted in world supply make it's way to the end user