For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/8509/
From Natural Gas Intelligence earlier:
August Natural Gas Called Slightly Higher as Support Seen Firm
9:00 AM
August natural gas futures were set to open Tuesday slightly higher at around $2.730/MMBtu, with forecasters noting generally small adjustments to guidance overnight as the storage picture continued to lend support. Read More
Storage is LOW for this time of year!!
Storage is at the bottom of the 5 year average:
for week ending July 13, 2018 | Released: July 19, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 26, 2018
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/13/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 07/13/18 | 07/06/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 507 | 480 | 27 | 27 | 606 | -16.3 | 613 | -17.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 501 | 477 | 24 | 24 | 731 | -31.5 | 666 | -24.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 144 | 143 | 1 | 1 | 194 | -25.8 | 171 | -15.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 259 | 260 | -1 | -1 | 292 | -11.3 | 309 | -16.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 838 | 843 | -5 | -5 | 1,136 | -26.2 | 1,025 | -18.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 230 | 238 | -8 | -8 | 320 | -28.1 | 291 | -21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 608 | 605 | 3 | 3 | 816 | -25.5 | 734 | -17.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,249 | 2,203 | 46 | 46 | 2,959 | -24.0 | 2,784 | -19.2 | |||||||||||||||||
One good way to help estimate the next EIA number is to look at the previous one and see what the temperatures were like during the 7 day period used for that report.....................then, see what the temperatures were like for the next 7 day period which will be used this next report, tomorrow:
These temperatures below cover the period for this last EIA report.
This was the 7 day period that was covered for the last EIA report:
These were the temperatures for the 7 day period which passed for this coming Thursday's EIA ng storage report:
Seasonals based on historical prices..........this graph is pretty old.
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
|
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
Natural Gas Futures Gain on Warmer-Trending August, Storage Deficits
5:19 PM
Natural gas futures climbed Tuesday as storage concerns and warmer forecast trends for August helped prices bounce off support. In the spot market, one day after posting its highest average in at least a decade on a combination of sweltering temperatures and infrastructure constraints, SoCal Citygate pulled back to post a slightly less astronomical premium; the NGI National Spot Gas Average fell 29 cents to $2.93.
Not sure what they are talking about actually as the models were WARMER yesterday, especially the GFS products but also the Canadian ensembles when ng was down sharply but cooler today when ng was up.
I will assume they needed a reason.
My reason is that we went down and tested last weeks lows overnight, going down to 2.685 in Sept NG and huge support that was identified on yesterdays post and it held.
By metmike - July 23, 2018, 6:21 p.m.
Despite the weakness today, natural gas did not take out last weeks lows.
I will start following Sept ng now, since it has the most volume. It traded down to 2.688 on Monday. Last weeks lows were 2.671. That looks like an area of very strong support.
If the pattern turns much warmer in August, which is where I'm leaning, unless we get hit with some massively bearish EIA storage reports, it seems hard to imagine us taking out that support.