Excessive Rainfall threat..........mostly East.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.   Not very high without a strong jet stream.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook	Forecaster: Hart/Kerr Issued: 18/1240Z Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
Current Day 2 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0600Z Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 3 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0731Z Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Wednesday....... comfortable Midwest, to East Coast. S.Plains finally cooled off a bit. Blast furnace in the Southwest!!!

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Comfortable air N.Plains/ Midwest.  High dewpoints for Northeast/East Coast...........Atlantic moisture pouring in!

Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.

Highs days 3-7.

Hot South.  Magnificent North(especially Upper Midwest/N.Plains).

Record Heat West!!!!!

How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Below average in the N/C.Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.

Heat backs up to the West!  Record heat in some places and this is the hottest time of year!!

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Active in the East/Northeast with Atlantic moisture pouring in. Becoming active in the Central Plains.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image:

Widespread rain in the East moving from south to north to even northwest all day around an upper level low just to the west.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.

Rains the past 24 hours.     

Wet in the East.    

Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(relief KS/MO/AR late this week)

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days:

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks:

Today:  Cooler than average Midwest to Southeast..... heat  backed up West...pushed southwest in S.Plains.

In 5+ days:

Hot West!!  Below average temperatures N/C.Plains/ Midwest.

In 10+ days   Hot West!!!!  Below average Midwest.

Day 15  Hot West to Plains.............The pattern may be shifting and moving

Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles.  Same question of the last week. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this nudge the trough northward?

Around half of the members have this idea.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............heat ridge south cool north.  

Alot of rain .....potential for too much rain.

Precip below:

August Forecast. Updated by the NWS on Thursday.

Very warm/hot, except for the N.Plains.

Dry Southern Plains to Southwest Cornbelt.............where soils are driest right now(there is a correlation as drought begets drought)

New 12Z GFS is not alot different than previous runs. Looks to me like its setting up the stage/supporting a new pattern that will feature a heat ridge in the south and cooler air north. 

In between, at least a moderate jet stream by August standards and a stationary to slow moving front between the 2 air masses, along with deep Gulf moisture flowing north from the heat ridge that provided the ingredients for heavy rains.

It looks likely that the N.Plains(ND/SD) would be dry with this pattern as the storms all develop much farther south. The East Coast would be very wet and  in the path of numerous storms clusters that form upstream. 

The strengthening El Nino is favorable for this set up in August also..............even though August/September, typically are pretty dry months in the Midwest.

Being over 10 days out,  this is very speculative.

            Last operational GFS at 2 weeks. 

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht

Total 2 week rains below.

Last European model has the heat ridge a bit farther south and the jet stream also farther south.........with tons of disagreement between the individual members.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 8, 2018 12UTC

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

NWS extended forecast........below temperature anomalies shrinking in size and intensity in the later period vs their previous outlooks. 

Wet in the eastern parts of the country. Possibly dry in the Plains.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

Extreme weather days 3-7:

Heavy rains KS/MO/AR to points east.

More intense heat out West.

The latest 18z Operational GFS and recent ones since yesterday, have been pretty cool again in the Midwest/East in week 2(and deep with the upper level trough) after looking warmer Sat-Mon.

gfs_namer_336_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_336_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_336_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_336_850_temp_ht