Previous thread here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83643/
SRW also filled the gap lower this morning, similar to HRW after the open last night.
Rains with this event, as mentioned last night would be LESS than predicted on Friday but we have another BIGGER event coming up midweek.
However, maybe the biggest news is, as mentioned yesterday is the potential warm up coming in week 2 with a potential major weather pattern change that will allow for corn and bean planting to catch up later this month.
It will also bring HOT/dry weather to the C/S Plains.
So bearish C and S and bullish wheat prices AFTER this next rain event.
I have not yet written an official intro to #CropWatch22 for this year, but this piece from last year explains what we will be doing throughout the summer and where the fields are located:
#CropWatch22 has begun! 11 producers across 9 U.S. states will be offering weekly updates through harvest on one corn and one soybean field, a total of 22 fields. Crop Watch is now in its 5th year, and 2022 will not be one to miss. You can follow along right here on my feed.
Considering the weather last week, the WW crop conditions may deteriorate a bit more this afternoon.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
April 26, 2022
U.S. Drought Monitor
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Drought monitor previous years:
See all the weather here:
Still some decent rains for the drier areas of the HRW coming up but the driest will NOT have the best.
Corn and Bean planting will be farther behind on the crop progress report but the market knew this last week.
It's trading NEW weather for later this month that it didn't know before.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1922.txt
Winter Wheat in the P/VP was +4%, all HRW in the drought areas as expected. Now rated an amazing 43% P/VP.
MT, CO, NE, KS, OK and TX are all at least 39% P/VP. TX is 77% P/VP!!!
U.S. planting progress is behind schedule and well behind last year, especially for #corn. Only 14% planted as of Sunday vs 42% last year. #Soybeans 8% planted, in line with trade guesses. Winter #wheat conditions did not improve. 27% good/exc is worst for any date since 1996.
metmike: Puzzled why the trade thought WW conditions would improve? Not mentioned is the +4% in the P/VP rating..........a big deterioration.
As of May 1, the most severe delays for U.S. #corn planting were in top-producing states including Iowa, Illinois & Minnesota. U.S. corn planting progress usually jumps 17% in this week, but cool and wet weather allowed for only +7%.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
What a difference a year makes. U.S. #corn planting was quick & efficient in 2021 but has been slow in 2022. On May 1 last year, progress in top states Iowa, Illinois & Minnesota had all reached or surpassed 50%. Single digits this year - Minnesota hasn't even started.
++++++++++++++++++++
U.S. corn yield reached a record 177 bu/acre in 2021, largely because summer weather was favorable in most areas. I wouldn't say we can rule out a record yield yet in 2022. Summer weather is still key. But honestly record yields might not be my top scenario at the moment..
Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.
This map is updated daily(with previous days data).
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83880
metmike: I think that any places dry enough to plant in the Upper Midwest will be good for planting, regarding soil temps at the end of this week!
Things should really start warming up at that point!
All the weather is here: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Planting of U.S. #soybeans started off on a RECORD pace last year, but this year it is only so-so in the early stages. Progress reached 8% as of Sunday, behind the recent 5yr average of 13% and well behind last year's 22%. These delays are not as bad as those for corn right now.
+++++
U.S. soybean planting in 2019 was record late but with prior year ending stocks near 1 bln bu, market wasn't all that worried. But soy acres that year were too low and it led to the latest situation of tight stocks. Stocks are tight for both this year, and prod costs are v high.
Driest spots of HRW country missed most of the good rains..........now we see a round of intense heat coming up.
Several consecutive days with mid 90's to 100 and strong southwest winds early next week.
This will put the nails in the coffin for massive amount of the P/VP HRW in that area that missed most of this rain.
If there was an additional category of D=dead, lots of wheat in the southwest HRW belt will be D.
Much of wheat's incredible strength today was from the very bullish HRW weather next week.
This is where the Winter wheat is grown.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/ww-pr.php
This is the soil moisture:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Here is the forecast next week for the northern panhandle of TX wheat country:
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 25 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 94. Windy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 60. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 94. Windy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 57. Breezy.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 96. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Breezy.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 95. Windy.
metmike: After next week, all the wheat in that area will be in the D category for Dead that I just made up earlier.
Here's all the weather:
