KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +12.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +12.4%)
9:00 AM ET. January U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +17.0%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +18.5%; previous +18.6%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +18.8%)
10:00 AM ET. March Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 108.0; previous 110.5)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx (previous 145.1)
10:00 AM ET. February Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.8M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,266.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,063.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 15,070.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,266.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,548.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,063.64.
The June S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4624.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4366.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4592.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4624.48. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4481.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4366.65.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149-14. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-22. First support is Monday's low crossing at 146-10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17.
June T-notes was steady to lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.263 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.315. Second resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.263. First support is Monday's low crossing at 120.305. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:May crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.05 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends Monday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.30 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $126.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $116.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.30. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at $92.20.
May heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4536 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $4.3138 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $3.8570. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.3138. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4536. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9780.
May unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $3.8075 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9486 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $3.4727. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $3.8075. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.1157. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9486.
May Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.971 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.876 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.707. Second resistance is last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.876. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.212. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.971.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the March 17th low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $97.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 8th high crossing at $99.47. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $97.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.07.
The June Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 17th high crossing at $111.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, March's low crossing at $108.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 17th high crossing at $111.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.27. First support is March's low crossing at $108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Monday's decline, March's low crossing at 1.2994 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365 is the next upside target.First resistance is the38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3047. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.2994.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Friday's high, March's low crossing at 1.0609 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0834 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0848. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0848. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0972. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0694. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off March's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the November 10th high crossing at $80.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $80.25. Second resistance is the November 10th high crossing at $80.55. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.93.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight as it extended this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.084551 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.082877. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.084551. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.080085. Second support is the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1891.60 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off the March 16th low, the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $2082.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1891.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1842.00.
May silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.387 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 16th low, the March 10th high crossing at $26.425 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 10th high crossing at $26.425. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $27.495. First support is the March 16th low crossing at $24.550. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.387.
May copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.6420 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.6420. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.4685.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 16th low crossing at $7.26 3/4 would mark a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off September's low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is the March 16th low crossing at $7.26 3/4. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $7.15.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $10.31 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the March 22nd high crossing at $11.69 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound off the March 17th low and a possible retest of March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.69 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $10.31 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.23 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the March 15th high crossing at $11.64 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.58 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $10.26 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $17.36 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Third resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.
May soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $475.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $494.70. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $475.00. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $441.70.
May soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's sharp decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 18th low crossing at 71.32 would mark a downside breakout of March's trading range and would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.27. If May renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the March 9th high crossing at 78.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the March 18th low crossing at 71.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.27.
Thanks tallpine!