INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 23, 2022, 7:34 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, March 23, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 496.5)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 269.5)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1778.3)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.8%)

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th quarter State Quarterly Personal Income

 

10:00 AM ET. February New Residential Sales

 

                       New Home Sales (previous 801K)

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -4.5%)

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.1)

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 415.907M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.345M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 240.991M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.615M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 114.206M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.332M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous (previous 90.4%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.652M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.558M)

 



 

 

Thursday, March 24, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter International Transactions

 

                       Current Account (USD) (previous -214.77B)

 

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Report on Durable Goods

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +1.6%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.6%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.9%

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 214K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1419000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -71K)

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2040.4K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1730.2K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 471.5K)

 

9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 56.7)

 

9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 57.5)

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1440B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -79B)

 

11:00 AM ET. March Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 31)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 57)

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 29)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 38)

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, March 25, 2022   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February State Employment and Unemployment

 

10:00 AM ET. February Pending Home Sales Index

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 109.5)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -5.7%)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -9.5%)

 

10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 62.8)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 59.4)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.9%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.2)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 14,822.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,912.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 14,822.42. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 15,070.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,912.55. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 12,942.50.



The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4530.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4323.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4530.57. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 4578.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4408.19. Second support is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 4323.79.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 151-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-09. First support is the overnight low crossing at 147-21. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17.



June T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.277 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124.109. Second resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.277. First support is the overnight low crossing at 122.120. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:May crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, March's high crossing at $126.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $113.35. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.89.



May heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at $4.3138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2918 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.6472. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.3138. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2918. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.8821. 



May unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday low, the March 4th high crossing at $3.4817 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1992 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $3.3940. Second resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $3.4817. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1992. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.8819.    



May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally to new contract highs. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.780 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.279. Second resistance is last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.780. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.509.   



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $97.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 8th high crossing at $99.47. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $97.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.78.



The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.61. First support is March's low crossing at $108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.



The June British Pound was lower overnight due to profit taking after early strength failed to attract additional buying. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3121 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3121. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.2994.



The June Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0564 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0803 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0806. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0865. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0609. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0564.  

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $80.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $79.58. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $80.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.63.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.082304 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.085642 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.084396. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.085642. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.082525. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.082304.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1882.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1947.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1947.60. Second resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1882.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $1859.60.



May silver was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.203 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.375 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.375. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $27.495. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $24.550. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.203.    



May copper was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.6450 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.7540. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.6450. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.4685. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $7.26 3/4 would mark a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off September's low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $7.26 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $6.79 1/4. 



May wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI  remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the last-Thursday's low crossing at $10.31 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of the month. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $11.69 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound off last-Thursday's low and a possible retest of March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $11.69 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $10.31 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4. 



May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past nine-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.23 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.64 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 2008-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.58 1/4.



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $11.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally into the end of the month. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $11.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $10.26 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is the March 9th high crossing at $17.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Third resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.

 

May soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $468.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $491.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $468.20. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $441.70. 



May soybean oil was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the March 4th low crossing at 71.87 would mark a downside breakout of March's trading range and would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.07. First resistance is the March 9th high crossing at 78.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the March 4th low crossing at 71.87. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at 68.22.       

Comments
By metmike - March 23, 2022, 11:44 a.m.
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Thanks a ton tallpine!