So the war trade is, to this point, revealing itself (thus far) in the following way.
Grains are holding their gains. Crude and gold charts show quite a bit of damage.
Not saying that grains relative strength vs gold and crude will be sustained, just an observation of how things are going presently. If I had to get long one of these markets, it would be grains.
We just had the largest pump-and-dump that Goldman Sach has every done in there entire history so I would not use that to measure gold and oil. Gold and Oil are going to new highs during Early April (3 weeks tops).
gold is going down into the fed meeting. when the market decides that a quarter point increase is Not enough, then gold should rebound. just my thoughts.
I totally agree with you, but I still say we just witnessed the Largest Pump and Dump that Goldman has ever done.