here is a positive in a week filled with bad and sad news
11 responses | 0 likes
Started by mcfarm - March 10, 2022, 11:02 a.m.
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By metmike - March 10, 2022, 12:39 p.m.
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Thanks for bringing this up and helping to remind me, mcfarm!

I've been tied up as the scientist working on my wife's carbon capture business and not posting as much!

@kannbwx

Huge old-crop export sales of U.S. #corn & #soybeans last week, a marketing year high for corn and 76% above the 4week avg for beans. #China, unknown and Egypt were in on beans, the usual suspects for corn + unknown. China was the buyer of almost all the new crop beans.

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By metmike - March 10, 2022, 12:42 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Sales of new-crop U.S. #soybeans to #China and unknown through March 3 were easily record for the date at 7.17 million tonnes (263 mbu). That is 94% of all 2022/23 soy sales on the books.

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By metmike - March 10, 2022, 12:43 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Recent #corn sales had been slightly behind normal pace, but a MY record in the latest week solidifies average sales so far in calendar year 2022 (9 weeks thru March 3). Full MY sales through March 3 are 50.2 mmt, 79% of USDA's forecast.

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By metmike - March 10, 2022, 12:44 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Export sales of old-crop U.S. #soybeans have been on a record pace recently. 10.6 mmt sold to all destinations so far in calendar year 2022, prior high was 9.5 mmt in 2019. Full MY sales total 52.4 mmt, 92% of USDA's forecast.

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By metmike - March 10, 2022, 12:45 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#China will invest more than $250M on field management for its struggling winter #wheat crop. Very unusual for China to disclose crop problems, but they recently made a deal to buy Russian wheat. Perhaps a good reason to eventually justify those purchases? Thinking out loud.

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By metmike - March 10, 2022, 12:47 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#Russia on Thursday suspended grain exports through Aug. 31 to the Eurasian Economic Union (read story to see members). At least for wheat, doesn't look like that's too impactful. Kazakhstan is a major wheat exporter. Russia says its own food security is ensured.

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By metmike - March 10, 2022, 12:48 p.m.
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@kannbwx·49m

It's also pretty detrimental when you invade a country, attack cargo vessels and shut down a hugeImage

By metmike - March 12, 2022, 9:49 p.m.
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@kannbwx

USDA confirms the following U.S. export sales:128,900 tonnes of #corn to unknown in 2021/22264,000 tonnes of #soybeans to #China in 2022/23

By metmike - March 12, 2022, 9:52 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Ukrainian farmers are already concerned about their winter wheat. They are short of fertilizers and fuel to power equipment.

An agricultural worker drives a tractor spreading fertilizers to a field of winter wheat near the village of Husachivka in Kiev region, Ukraine April 17, 2020. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/File Photoreuters.comUkraine’s farmers stalled, fueling fears of global food shortagesThe Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens millions of tiny spring-time sprouts that should emerge from stalks of dormant winter wheat in the coming weeks. If the farmers can't feed


https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-farmers-stalled-fueling-fears-global-food-shortages-2022-03-11/

March 11 (Reuters) - The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens millions of tiny spring-time sprouts that should emerge from stalks of dormant winter wheat in the coming weeks. If the farmers can't feed those crops soon, far fewer of the so-called tillers will spout, jeopardizing a national wheat harvest on which millions in the developing world depend.

The wheat was planted last autumn, which, after a brief growing period, fell dormant for the winter. Before the grain returns to life, however, farmers typically spread fertilizer that encourages the tillers to grow off the main stalks. Each stalk can have three or four tillers, increasing the yield per wheat stalk exponentially.

But Ukrainian farmers - who produced a record grain crop last year - say they now are short of fertilizer, as well as pesticides and herbicides. And even if they had enough of those materials, they can’t get enough fuel to power their equipment, they add.

Elena Neroba, a Kyiv-based business development manager at grain brokerage Maxigrain, said Ukraine’s winter wheat yields could fall by 15% compared to recent years if fertilizers aren’t applied now. Some farmers warn the situation could be much worse.

Some Ukrainian farmers told Reuters their wheat yields could be cut in half, and perhaps by more, which has implications far beyond Ukraine. Countries such as Lebanon, Egypt, Yemen and others have come to rely on Ukrainian wheat in recent years. The war has already caused wheat prices to skyrocket - rising by 50% in the last month.

The Ukrainian farming crisis comes as food prices around the world already have been spiking for months amid global supply chain problems attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. World food prices hit a record high in February, and have risen over 24% in a year, the U.N. food agency said last week. Agriculture ministers from the world's seven largest advanced economies were due Friday to discuss in a virtual meeting the impact of Russia's invasion on global food security and how best to stabilize food markets.

International food and feed prices could rise by up to 20%as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, triggering a jump in global malnourishment, the United Nations food agency said on Friday. read more

Ukraine and Russia are major wheat exporters, together accounting for about a third of world exports- almost all of which passes through the Black Sea.

Svein Tore Holsether, president of Norway-based Yara International, the world’s largest maker of nitrogen-based fertilizers, said he is worried that tens of millions of people will suffer food shortages because of the farming crisis in Ukraine. "For me, it's not whether we are moving into a global food crisis,” he said. “It's how large the crisis will be."

Ukrainian officials say they are still hopeful the country will have a relatively successful year. Much of that hope rests with farmers in the west of the country, which, so far, remains distant from the shooting.

But officials are taking measures to protect domestic supplies to ensure Ukraine’s population gets fed - posing another possible hit to export shipments. Agriculture Minister Roman Leshchenko said on Tuesday the country was banning the export of various staples, including wheat. Leshchenko has acknowledged the threat to Ukraine’s food supply and that the government was doing what it can to help farmers.

“We understand that food for the entire state depends on what will be in the fields,” he said in televised remarks Monday.

Moscow says it is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine to demilitarize and capture dangerous nationalists. It has denied deliberately targeting civilians and civil infrastructure, despite documented attacks on hospitals, apartment buildings and railroads.

Grain exports are a cornerstone of Ukraine’s economy.

In the coming weeks, farmers should also start planting other crops, such as corn and sunflowers, but they are struggling to get the seeds they need, said Dykun Andriy, chairman of the Ukrainian Agricultural Council, which represents about 1,000 farmers cultivating five million hectares.

Andriy warned that the fuel is the critical problem now. Unless farmers can get diesel to run their equipment, spring farmwork will be impossible and this year’s harvests doomed. “Farmers are desperate,” he said. “There is a big risk that we don't have enough food to feed our people.”

Maxigrain’s Neroba said farmers are facing fuel shortages because military needs take priority.

Ukrainian farmer Oleksandr Chumak said little work is happening in his fields, some 200 km north of the Black Sea port of Odessa. He farms 3,000 hectares (about 7,500 acres) where he grows wheat, corn, sunflowers and rapeseed. Even if he had enough fuel to get his equipment into the fields, he said he had insufficient fertilizer for all of his crops and no herbicides.

“Usually we have maybe six to seven tons (of wheat) per hectare. This year, I think that if we get three tons per hectare, it will be very good,” Chumak said. He added he remains hopeful that Ukrainian farmers will find a way to grow enough food to feed their countrymen, but he does not expect much will be exported.

In northern Ukraine, he said friends of his have been reduced to skimming fuel from a ditch that was filled with diesel after a Russian attack on a train spilled fuel from several tankers. Other friends, in the occupied areas near Kherson, are scavenging diesel from ambushed and abandoned Russian tanker convoys, Chumak said.

Currently, he spends much of his time preparing for a Russian assault. “I live in Odessa. Every day I see rockets fly over my house.”

Val Sigaev, a grain broker at R.J. O'Brien in Kyiv, who evacuated last week, said it is unclear how much of the usual spring farming -- planting and fertilizing -- would be possible. High prices for natural gas - a major input for fertilizer - sent fertilizer prices up, so some farmers postponed purchases.

"Some people think we could plant as much as half of the crop,” Sigaev said. “Others say that only the West will see plantings and what is produced will be strictly for Ukrainian needs.”

The situation is especially dire in the southern port city of Kherson, the first Ukrainian city Russia captured after invading the country on Feb. 24. Spring-like weather adds to farmers’ urgency, if they don't tend to their fields now this year’s harvest will be a bust.

Andrii Pastushenko is the general manager of a 1,500-hectare farm just west of the city, near the mouth of the Dnipro River. Last autumn, they sowed about 1,000 hectares of wheat, barley and rapeseed. His farm workers need to get into those fields now, but can’t, he says, and they’ve lost access to fuel. “We’re completely cut off from the civilized world and the rest of Ukraine.”

Additionally, many of Pastushenko's 80 workers cannot come to work at the farm because they live a few miles to the north, across the front line. The manager's problems are compounded because the region is drier than other agricultural areas of the country and his fields need to be irrigated. And that too requires fuel.

Unlike many, Pastushenko has a 50-metric ton nitrogen-based fertilizer stockpile. With the fighting all around him, however, he’s not sure that’s such a good thing: Fertilizer is highly explosive. “If something drops from a helicopter, it could blow the whole place,” he said.

He said he fears the harvest will be poor. Last year, his wheat and barley fields yielded about five metric tons per hectare. If he doesn’t spray insecticide - which he says he can’t get - and spread fertilizer, he doubts he’ll get a third of that amount.

“I’ve no idea whether we’ll be able to harvest something,” he said. “Something will come off the ground, but it won’t be enough to feed our cattle and pay our staff.”


By metmike - March 12, 2022, 9:54 p.m.
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UPDATE 2-Brazil launches fertilizer plan to cut import dependence

https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-fertilizers-idAFL2N2VE1D8

By Ana Mano, Roberto Samora, Lisandra Paraguassu


SAO PAULO, March 11 (Reuters) - Brazil on Friday launched a national fertilizer plan aimed at reducing its dependence on imports after the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions pushed up costs and threatened productivity in the Latin American farming powerhouse.

The plan underscores concern in Brazil, the world’s largest importer of fertilizers, about inputs for major export crops such as soybeans, corn and sugarcane, which account for 73% of the nation’s fertilizer use.

The Agriculture Ministry said the plan aims to reduce imports to 45% of total domestic fertilizer consumption by 2050, from 85% currently.

With new incentives for private investment in fertilizer production, the government aims to reduce reliance on China, Canada and Morocco – as well as Russia and Belarus, whose exports are now crimped severely by sanctions.

Canada is Brazil’s largest source of potash, which represents 38% of domestic fertilizer use, but Russia and Belarus together provide nearly half of supplies.

Phosphorus comprises 33% of total fertilizer use in Brazil, while nitrogen represents 29%, according to the ministry.

Experts have warned it will take years of heavy investment for Brazil to expand fertilizer production.

Fertilizer lobby Anda reports domestic fertilizer use grew by 28% in the past two years, making Brazil the world’s fourth-largest consumer.

Marcelo Mello, head of fertilizers at consultancy StoneX, said Brazil’s potash mines are not as competitive as those located in Canada, Belarus and Russia, while its phosphorous reserves pale next to those of Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China.

“Mines depend on God putting them there,” he said.

Brazil’s most promising potash project, in the Amazon region, could eventually produce some 2 million tonnes per year, Mello said, which would satisfy just part of Brazil’s annual consumption of around 13 million tonnes.

Producing nitrogen fertilizers would require major industrial investments and huge amounts of energy, which would not be cheap in Brazil, Mello added. (Reporting by Roberto Samora and Ana Mano in São Paulo and Lisandra Paraguassu in Brasília; Additional reporting by Gabriel Araujo in Sao Paulo Editing by Brad Haynes, Jonathan Oatis and Matthew Lewis)

By metmike - March 12, 2022, 9:55 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Traffic of #soybeans out of South America on Friday versus last year. Should be busier mid-ocean in this year's shot as Feb. departures out of #Brazil were at least twice last Feb. March 2021 exports were record for the month.

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