By Phil Flynn
http://www.futuresmag.com/2018/07/20/saudi%E2%80%99s-say-enough-enough
"Even though Saudi Oil Production increased by 750,000 barrels in June, July levels would remain unchanged. In fact, the Saudi said that their oil exports would fall by 100,000 barrels a day and even though the Saudis and Russia are increasing output, they project that global oil inventories will see substantial drawdowns in the second half of the year.
And that is what I see as well. As oil sold off after signsthat OPEC and Russia would raise output, the truth is that the increase is hardly going to be enough to stop oil stockpile declines later in the year. Even with U.S. record production, the combination of record oil demand, along with declining production from Venezuela and sanctions on Iran, we will be in a supply deficit when we see the end of the year demand increases kick in. Reuters is reporting that Japan's last imports of Iranian oil could be in October. Also, in a sign that global demand is strong, we saw that Asia oil buyers snapped up cargoes from Europe and Africa after Brent prices fall. "
Ignore the 3 month chart which is deceptive because its the front month, August that expires today.
The other periods use September:
Crude 3 month chart
Crude1year chart below
Crude 5 year chart below
Crude10 year chart below
I agree Mike. You can't ignore the fact that as more oil is pumped from available resources, the "spare capacity" gets reduced as well.
Then if you have a flare up in Nigeria or Libya, the rally is intensified. Will be an interesting second half of the year for crude.
WTIC to $350 into 2026. Nuff said. . . . Sorry I was 5 years early and when I say 5 years, I say that knowing the old site is gone and you can not search for comments I made more then 5 years ago.