KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 13, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 207K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +7K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1754000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +36K)
8:30 AM ET. December PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 256.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 449.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 51.1K)
9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3195B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg(Cbf) (previous -31B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, January 14, 2022
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.7%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +0.4%)
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 76.8%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +1.2%)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 70.4)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 74.6)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 35,837.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 36,952.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35,837.45. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at 34,665.50.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16,144.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-rally crossing at 15,043.89 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16,144.84. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 16,659.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 15,152.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-rally crossing at 15,043.89.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4670.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December 20th low crossing at 4520.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4723.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4808.25. First support is the December 20th low crossing at 4520.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 4485.75.
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March T-bonds closed down 2/32's at 155-28.
March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 156-31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-02. First support is Monday's low crossing at 154-19. Second support is the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07.
March T-notes closed up 45-pts. at 128.170.
March T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 127.290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.280 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.012. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.280. First support is Monday's low crossing at 127.300. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 127.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off December's low and posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $85.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $83.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $85.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.56.
February heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low and posted a new contract high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $279.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $236.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $261.33. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $279.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $245.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $236.67.
February unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $281.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $223.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 240.13. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 281.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $223.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $218.69.
February Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.352 as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.035 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.869 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December crossing at 5.035. Second resistance the November 26th high crossing at 5.400. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.870. Second support is December's low crossing at 3.518.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday marking a downside breakout of the November-January trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the 38% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at $94.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.03. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $96.90. First support is today's low crossing at $94.89. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $94.11.
The March Euro closed higher on Wednesday and marked an upside breakout of the November-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the 25% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 115.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 114.61. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-November decline crossing at 115.26. First support is November's low crossing at 112.22. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 110.60.
The March British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 4th high crossing at 1.3692 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3426 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3826. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3914. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3450. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3409.
The March Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0712 is the next downside target. If March extends today's rally, December's high crossing at 1.1005 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.1005. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1042. First support is the December 15th low crossing at 1.0791. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0712.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the November 10th high crossing at 80.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.02. Second resistance is the November 10th high crossing at 80.70. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 78.03. Second support is November's low crossing at 77.13.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087671 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087671. Second resistance is the December 17th high crossing at 0.088485. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.085980. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 1838.70 is the next upside target. If February renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at $1753.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1833.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1838.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1781.30. Second support is December's low crossing at $1753.00.
March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving acreage crossing at 23.247 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally near-term, December's low crossing at 21.410 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.247. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 24.960. First support is December's low crossing at 21.410. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 21.003.
March copper closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off December's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 461.42 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 431.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 461.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 469.36. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 431.35. Second support is December's low crossing at 411.95.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.02-cents at $5.99.
March corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.87 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off last-Monday's low, December's high crossing at $6.17 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $6.17 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.33. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.87 3/4. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at $5.62 1/2.
March wheat closed down $0.12 1/2-cents at $7.57 3/4.
March wheat closed lower on Wednesday following a bearish supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.75 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.75 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.97. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.48. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.13 3/4-cents at $7.78.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rallycrossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $7.24 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.07 3/4-cents at $9.20 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.83 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.47. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.83 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the September 10th low crossing at $8.51.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up $0.12 3/4-cents at $13.99 1/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday following a friendly monthly supply-demand report. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.50 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off the November 30th low, last-June's high crossing at $14.45 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at $14.13 1/4. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $14.45 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.50 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.93 3/4.
March soybean meal closed up $2.70 at $415.80.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 31st low crossing at $398.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $450.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $431.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $450.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $401.80. Second support is the December 31st low crossing at $398.20.
March soybean oil closed up 47 pts. at 59.34.
March soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 61.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 59.24. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 61.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.53. Second support is December's low crossing at 51.10.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $1.25 at $79.10.
February hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $75.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $84.68. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $87.48. First support is Monday's low crossing at $77.55. Second support is December's low crossing at $75.35.
February cattle closed down $0.98 at $136.70.
February cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $135.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $137.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $137.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $141.43. First support is December's low crossing at $135.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $134.30.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.33 at $165.03.
March feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, August's high crossing at $171.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $170.83. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $171.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.44. Second support is December's low crossing at $159.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 252.35 signal is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 201.45 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the October 25th high crossing at 26.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.75 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 17.28 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday and posted a new contract high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 121.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!