INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 10, 2022, 7:49 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, January 10, 2022   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 114.49)

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

Tuesday, January 11, 2022   

 



 

 

6:00 AM ET. December NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

 



 

 

                       Small Business Idx (previous 98.4)

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 



 

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 48.4)

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 42.8)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

Wednesday, January 12, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 572.8)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.6%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 277.3)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -10.2%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2351.3)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.5%)

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Real Earnings

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 417.851M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.144M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.787M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +10.128M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 126.846M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.418M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 89.8%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.665M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.553M)

 

                        

 

12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. December Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.

 



 

 

Thursday, January 13, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 207K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +7K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1754000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +36K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 256.1K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 449.8K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 51.1K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3195B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg(Cbf) (previous -31B)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, January 14, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 



 

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 



 

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 76.8%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)

 

10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 



 

 

                       Total Inventories (previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 70.4)

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.8)

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 74.6)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extended the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 15,492.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16,143.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. From a broad perspective, March needs to close above November's high crossing at 16,768.00 or below December's low crossing at 15,492.00 to confirm a breakout of the November-January trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16,143.24. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 16,659.50. First support is December's low crossing at 15,492.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 15,043.89.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4666.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4808.25. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4666.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 4520.25.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-22 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 157-24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-22. First support is the overnight low crossing at 154-19. Second support is the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07.



March T-notes was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 126.110 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.041 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.041. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 131.190. First support is the overnight low crossing at 127.300. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.110.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:February crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $81.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $79.60. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $81.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.28. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.48.



February heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $2.5607 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3323 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at $2.4881. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $2.5607. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.4118. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3323.  



February unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 2.34441 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2086 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 2.3441. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 2.4026. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.2758. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2086.    



February Henry natural gas gapped up and was higher overnight marking a potential upside breakout of the December-January trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 6th gap crossing at 4.010 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range has been posted. If February renews the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.050 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 6th gap crossing at 4.010. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.384. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.535. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.050.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the November-January trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Friday's low, December's high crossing at $96.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the November 30th low crossing at $95.50 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the May-December-2021 rally crossing at $95.07. First resistance is the December 15th high crossing at $96.89. Second resistance is the June-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $97.81. First support is the November 30th low crossing at $95.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the May-December-2021 rally crossing at $95.07.



The March Euro was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the November-January trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the November 30th high crossing at $114.17 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $114.17. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at $115.23. First support is November's low crossing at $112.21. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.60.



The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 9th high crossing at 1.3609 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3407 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the November 9th high crossing at 1.3609. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3692. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3407. Second support is the December 8th low crossing at 1.3166.



The March Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 1.0791 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0922 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.1005. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1042. First support is the December 15th low crossing at 1.0791. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0712.  

 

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above December's high crossing at $79.35 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $79.35. Second resistance is the November 15th high crossing at $79.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.21. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.  



The March Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087308 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087245. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087704. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.085980. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.084932. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $1753.0 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1808.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1833.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1838.70. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1785.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $1753.00.



March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $21.410 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.288 would renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.288. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $25.540. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $21.945. Second support is December's low crossing at $21.410.   



March copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3541 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.5115 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.5115. Second resistance is the October 25th high crossing at 4.5335. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3541. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.1195.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.87 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the June high crossing at $6.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $6.17 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.33. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.87. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at $5.62 1/2. 



March wheat was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.77 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.77 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.98. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $7.35 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21.



March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.09 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.09 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $8.71. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $7.24 1/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.92 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.63. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.92 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $9.05 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the late-November low, last-June's high crossing at $14.45 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.37 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at $14.13 1/4. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $14.45 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.37 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.89.

 

March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $450.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $397.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $431.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $450.80. First support is the December 31st low crossing at $398.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $397.50. 



March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 61.44. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.94 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 59.68. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 61.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.94.       


Comments
By metmike - Jan. 10, 2022, 12:28 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!